基于SWAT模型的乌伦古河集水区水资源变化研究

发布时间：2018-07-28 17:58

【摘要】：我国水资源日益缺乏，尤其是在西北地区地广人稀、幅员辽阔，水资源总量人均占有量少，可利用的水资源更少。近年来，乌伦古河流域经济快速增长，工农业迅速发展，乌伦古河作为沿岸重要的水源地，支撑着流域经济发展，，在研究区发挥着不可或缺的作用。本文在GIS的平台上应用SWAT模型，首先收集整理研究区基础资料，建立了乌伦古河流域的空间数据库和属性数据库；在此基础上构建了乌伦古河流域的SWAT分布式水文模型，利用SWAT模型模拟研究区径流变化，并使用2000-2009年二台水文站的径流数据进行参数率定和模型验证，最后设置气候和土地利用变化情景，模拟分析不同气候和土地利用情景下径流的变化特征。主要包括以下几个方面： （1）分析处理基础数据包括土地利用、土壤、气象、水文数据，建立了相应的数据库，在ArcGIS9.3的平台上利用ArcSWAT2.3.4划分子流域、生成河网、确定流域边界以及划分水文响应单元，并进行水文参数的提取，整个研究区划分为44个子流域，249个水文响应单元。 （2）构建了乌伦古河流域分布式SWAT月径流模型，应用现有基础资料模拟径流，采用二台水文站实测月径流数据对模型进行校准和验证，校准期2000-2005年效率系数0.67，平均相对误差-6.56%，线性相关系数0.70；验证期2006-2009年效率系数0.80，平均相对误差-11.58%，线性相关系数0.81；表明模型在乌伦古河流域的适用性较好。 （3）假定未来多种气候变化情景，来研究气候变化对乌伦古河流域径流的影响，研究结果表明：流域气温升高1℃，降水不变，径流减少1.60%，径流与气温呈负相关关系；降水增加10%，气温不变，径流量增加4.21%，径流与降水呈正相关关系；且降水对径流的影响大于气温对其影响，说明乌伦古河流域未来气候对径流量变化主要影响因素是降水，其次是气温。 （4）设置三种土地利用变化情景，探讨了土地利用变化下乌伦古河流域径流响应，研究结果表明：1986年至2010年土地利用变化导致径流量的变化率为16.24%，其对地表径流的影响较大，主要原因在于流域土地利用开发导致下垫面产流特征的变化。
[Abstract]:Water resources in China are becoming increasingly scarce, especially in the northwest region, with a vast territory, a small per capita share of total water resources, and less available water resources. In recent years, with the rapid economic growth and rapid development of industry and agriculture, the Wulunguhe River, as an important source of water along the coast, supports the economic development of the basin and plays an indispensable role in the research area. In this paper, based on the SWAT model of GIS, the spatial database and attribute database of the Wulungu River Basin are established, and the SWAT distributed hydrological model of the Wulunguhe River Basin is constructed based on the data collection and collation of the basic data of the study area. The SWAT model is used to simulate the runoff change in the study area, and the runoff data of the two hydrologic stations from 2000 to 2009 are used to validate the parameter rate and the model. Finally, the climate and land use change scenarios are set up. The variation characteristics of runoff under different climate and land use scenarios were simulated and analyzed. The main contents are as follows: (1) the basic data including land use, soil, meteorology and hydrology are analyzed and processed. The corresponding database is established, and the sub-watershed is divided by ArcSWAT2.3.4 on the platform of ArcGIS9.3, and the river network is generated. The boundary of the basin and the hydrological response unit are determined, and the hydrological parameters are extracted. The whole study area is divided into 44 subbasins and 249 hydrological response units. (2) the distributed SWAT monthly runoff model of the Wulungu River Basin is constructed. Using the existing basic data to simulate the runoff, the model is calibrated and verified by the measured monthly runoff data of the two hydrological stations. The efficiency coefficient is 0.67, the average relative error is -6.56, and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.70 in the calibration period from 2000 to 2005. In the verification period 2006-2009, the efficiency coefficient was 0.80, the average relative error was -11.58, and the linear correlation coefficient was 0.81.It indicated that the model was suitable for the Ulugur River basin. (3) it is assumed that there are many climate change scenarios in the future. To study the effect of climate change on runoff in the Wulunguhe River basin, the results show that the temperature of the basin increases by 1 鈩

本文编号：2151153