基于马尔科夫过程的高堆石坝施工度汛决策模型
发布时间：2018-07-31 20:32
【摘要】：高堆石坝施工挡水风险的时变性和填筑进度的不确定性增加了坝体施工期度汛方案决策的难度。针对高堆石坝施工度汛过程动态变化的特点,随机模拟大坝挡水风险,并将其划分3个风险状态以判断度汛行动。以整个度汛施工期成本最小化为目标,考虑洪水来流、填筑进度和决策成本等关键因素,建立基于马尔科夫过程的高堆石坝施工度汛决策模型,分析逐月大坝挡水风险状态下的度汛策略、成本函数和风险状态转移概率。在检验其马尔科夫特性基础上,采用决策迭代算法求解每一决策时刻状态下的最优施工度汛方案及度汛过程的决策路径。工程实例分析表明,该决策模型对高堆石坝施工度汛计划策略的调控结果符合实际施工度汛高程变化情况,为指导快速准确制定大坝施工度汛方案提供了参考。
[Abstract]:The time variation of water retaining risk and the uncertainty of filling schedule in construction of high rockfill dam make it difficult to make decision of flood project during the construction period of high rockfill dam. According to the characteristics of the dynamic change of flood process in construction of high rockfill dam, the risk of dam retaining is simulated randomly, and three risk states are divided to judge the flood action. With the aim of minimizing the cost of the whole flood construction period, considering the key factors such as flood flow, filling schedule and decision cost, the decision model of high rockfill dam construction flood making based on Markov process is established. This paper analyzes the flood control strategy, cost function and risk state transition probability of monthly dam water retaining risk state. On the basis of testing its Markov characteristics, the decision iterative algorithm is used to solve the optimal construction flood plan and the decision path of the flood process at each decision time. The analysis of engineering examples shows that the control result of the decision model for flood plan strategy of high rockfill dam is in line with the change of flood elevation in actual construction, which provides a reference for the rapid and accurate formulation of flood plan for dam construction.
【作者单位】： 三峡大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51509143) 长江科学院开放研究基金项目(CKWV2016398/KY)
【分类号】：TV51;TV87
本文编号：2156748
[Abstract]:The time variation of water retaining risk and the uncertainty of filling schedule in construction of high rockfill dam make it difficult to make decision of flood project during the construction period of high rockfill dam. According to the characteristics of the dynamic change of flood process in construction of high rockfill dam, the risk of dam retaining is simulated randomly, and three risk states are divided to judge the flood action. With the aim of minimizing the cost of the whole flood construction period, considering the key factors such as flood flow, filling schedule and decision cost, the decision model of high rockfill dam construction flood making based on Markov process is established. This paper analyzes the flood control strategy, cost function and risk state transition probability of monthly dam water retaining risk state. On the basis of testing its Markov characteristics, the decision iterative algorithm is used to solve the optimal construction flood plan and the decision path of the flood process at each decision time. The analysis of engineering examples shows that the control result of the decision model for flood plan strategy of high rockfill dam is in line with the change of flood elevation in actual construction, which provides a reference for the rapid and accurate formulation of flood plan for dam construction.
【作者单位】： 三峡大学水利与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51509143) 长江科学院开放研究基金项目(CKWV2016398/KY)
【分类号】：TV51;TV87
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