不同洪水预报模型在拒马河流域的应用对比分析
发布时间：2018-09-11 21:43
【摘要】：拒马河水系为海河流域防洪重点区域,预报难度大,精度要求高。根据海河流域拒马河水系历史水文资料,分别采用新安江模型、增加超渗的新安江模型、河北雨洪模型和人工神经网络模型,对1956年、1963年和2012年暴雨洪水进行预报对比分析,研究结果表明:4种模型均可应用于暴雨强度大、降雨历时长的历史洪水模拟,洪峰流量模拟相对误差均小于20%,尤以人工神经网络模型模拟精度最高,4种模型在干旱半干旱地区均具有推广应用价值。
[Abstract]:The water system of Juma River is the key area of flood control in Haihe River Basin, which is difficult to forecast and requires high precision. According to the historical hydrological data of the Jemma River system in the Haihe River Basin, the Xinanjiang model, the Xinanjiang model with increasing overseepage, the rain flood model of Hebei Province and the artificial neural network model are used to forecast and compare the heavy rain floods in 1956, 1963 and 2012. The results show that the four models can be applied to the historical flood simulation with heavy rainfall intensity and long rainfall duration. The relative errors of Hong Feng flow simulation are all less than 20. Especially the artificial neural network model has the highest simulation accuracy and the four models have the value of popularization and application in arid and semi-arid areas.
【作者单位】： 水利部水文局;河海大学水文水资源学院;
【分类号】：P338
本文编号：2237942
[Abstract]:The water system of Juma River is the key area of flood control in Haihe River Basin, which is difficult to forecast and requires high precision. According to the historical hydrological data of the Jemma River system in the Haihe River Basin, the Xinanjiang model, the Xinanjiang model with increasing overseepage, the rain flood model of Hebei Province and the artificial neural network model are used to forecast and compare the heavy rain floods in 1956, 1963 and 2012. The results show that the four models can be applied to the historical flood simulation with heavy rainfall intensity and long rainfall duration. The relative errors of Hong Feng flow simulation are all less than 20. Especially the artificial neural network model has the highest simulation accuracy and the four models have the value of popularization and application in arid and semi-arid areas.
【作者单位】： 水利部水文局;河海大学水文水资源学院;
【分类号】：P338
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1 高鹏杰;;Tennant法用于拒马河生态基流量计算研究[A];中国水利学会2008学术年会论文集（上册）[C];2008年
，本文编号：2237942
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