气候变化对涟水流域蓝水绿水资源的影响

发布时间：2018-10-05 20:51

【摘要】：利用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟分析1996~2015年过去20 a及2020~2079年未来60 a长期气候变化背景下涟水流域蓝水绿水资源的时空分布变化特征。将气候变化划分为1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气象背景时期,选用Had GEM2-AO大气模式的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6、RCP8.5四种典型浓度路径作为未来时期的气象输入条件,并细分为9种气候变化情景。运用PSO粒子群优化算法,以KGE克林效率系数为目标函数,采用湘乡站实测径流量及MOD16蒸散发数据并行校准模型参数,通过p-factor、r-factor、R2、NSE和PBIAS评价模型模拟效果和不确定性,评价结果表明校准期及验证期蓝水绿水模拟均达到可信程度。情景分析结果表明,对比1996~2015年、2020~2049年、2050~2079年三段气候背景时期,在各RCP浓度路径下蓝水均呈现了不同程度的下降趋势,大约降低了1.4%~17.3%,绿水流均表现出一定的上升趋势,约增长3.5%~12.4%,绿水蓄量则在持续降低,大致下降了7.8%~19.7%,即使将95PPU模拟不确定性范围考虑进来,绿水流的增长趋势也较为明显。因此,将绿水资源纳入涟水流域未来水资源评价体系,实现蓝水绿水综合规划管理具有实际意义。
[Abstract]:SWAT distributed hydrological model was used to simulate and analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of blue water and green water resources in Lianshui Basin under the background of long-term climate change in the past 20 years from 1996 to 2015 and the future 60 years in 2020 ~ 2079. The climate change is divided into three meteorological background periods from 1996 to 2015 (2020-2049 ~ 2050- 2079). Four typical RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6,RCP8.5 concentration paths of Had GEM2-AO atmospheric model are selected as meteorological input conditions in the future period, and 9 climate change scenarios are subdivided. Using the PSO particle swarm optimization algorithm, taking the KGE Klin efficiency coefficient as the objective function, using the measured runoff and MOD16 evapotranspiration data from Xiangxiang station to calibrate the model parameters in parallel, the simulation effect and uncertainty of the model are evaluated by p-factor-r-factor-factor R2NSE and PBIAS. The evaluation results show that the simulation of blue water and green water in calibration period and verification period is credible. The results of scenario analysis show that, compared with the climate background period of 2020-2049 ~ 2050- 2079 in 1996 ~ 2015, the blue water shows a decreasing trend in varying degrees under each RCP concentration path, which is about 1.4% lower than 17.3%, and the green water flow shows a certain upward trend. About 3.5% and 12.4%, the amount of green water storage is decreasing, about 7.8% and 19.719.70.Even if the uncertainty range of 95PPU simulation is taken into account, the increasing trend of green water flow is obvious. Therefore, it is of practical significance to bring green water resources into the future water resources evaluation system of Lianshui Basin and to realize the comprehensive planning and management of blue water and green water.
【作者单位】：湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院;湖南省水文水资源勘测局;长沙市水务局;
【基金】：湖南省教育厅重点项目(15A114) 湖南省水利科技重大项目(湘水科计[2015]13-22,[2016]194-13) 湖南省自然科学基金重点项目(12JJ2026) 湖南省重点学科建设项目(2011-001) 湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2015B131)~~
【分类号】：P339;TV213

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