尼尔基水库入库洪水预报及误差分析
发布时间：2018-10-14 19:19
【摘要】：洪水灾害是世界上最为严重自然灾害的之一,给人民的生产生活和社会的发展带来了很不好的影响。洪水预报是非常重要的防洪减灾的非工程措施,因此探索适合各地区精准的洪水预报方法就显得很重要。尼尔基水库是嫩江干流上的控制性的水利枢纽工程,水库控制流域的下垫面条件及其降雨分布非常不均匀。因此,产汇流条件非常复杂,河道内的水流不仅要受到上游来水的作用,而且还受到下游回水的顶托以及其它支流等因素的影响。在传统的流域水文模型中,河网汇流部分无法对这些影响因素进行详细描述,从而导致流域出口断面的洪水预报精度降低。针对这个问题,本文以尼尔基水库控制流域为研究对象,利用丹麦水资源与水环境研究所研制的DHI MIKE系列软件中的MIKE11模型,建立尼尔基控制流域一维水动力HD模型和降雨径流NAM模型的耦合模型。模型考虑河道的水流运动物理机制,依据圣维南方程组求解得到河道内不同断面的流量和水位,尽可能地反映流域汇流真实情况;应用流域内的降雨站,水文站实测的流量、水位和降雨资料进行参数率定与模型验证。模拟结果表明,MIKE11模型的HD模块和NAM模块的耦合模型可以对尼尔基控制流域降雨径流、河网水流进行较好的模拟,为尼尔基水库防洪调度提供水文资料预测的技术支持。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, which has brought bad influence to the production and life of people and the development of society. Flood forecasting is a very important non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction, so it is very important to explore accurate flood forecasting methods suitable for various regions. The Nierji Reservoir is a controlled water conservancy project on the Nenjiang River main stream. The underlying surface conditions and rainfall distribution of the reservoir control basin are very uneven. Therefore, the conditions of runoff generation and confluence are very complicated, and the flow in the channel is affected not only by the upstream water, but also by the top support and other tributaries of the downstream backwater. In the traditional watershed hydrological model, the confluence part of the river network can not describe these factors in detail, which leads to the decrease of flood forecast precision of the watershed outlet section. In order to solve this problem, this paper takes the Nierji reservoir control basin as the research object and uses the MIKE11 model in the DHI MIKE software developed by the Danish Institute of Water Resources and Water Environment. The coupling model of one dimensional hydrodynamic HD model and rainfall runoff NAM model is established. The model takes into account the physical mechanism of river flow movement and obtains the discharge and water level of different sections of the river according to the San Venan equations, which reflects as much as possible the real situation of river basin confluence, and applies the actual volume of rainfall stations and hydrologic stations in the river basin. The parameters of water level and rainfall data were determined and the model was verified. The simulation results show that the coupling model of HD module and NAM module of MIKE11 model can well simulate the rainfall runoff and river network flow in Nierji control basin, and provide technical support for hydrological data prediction for flood control operation of Nierji reservoir.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697.13;TV124
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, which has brought bad influence to the production and life of people and the development of society. Flood forecasting is a very important non-engineering measure for flood control and disaster reduction, so it is very important to explore accurate flood forecasting methods suitable for various regions. The Nierji Reservoir is a controlled water conservancy project on the Nenjiang River main stream. The underlying surface conditions and rainfall distribution of the reservoir control basin are very uneven. Therefore, the conditions of runoff generation and confluence are very complicated, and the flow in the channel is affected not only by the upstream water, but also by the top support and other tributaries of the downstream backwater. In the traditional watershed hydrological model, the confluence part of the river network can not describe these factors in detail, which leads to the decrease of flood forecast precision of the watershed outlet section. In order to solve this problem, this paper takes the Nierji reservoir control basin as the research object and uses the MIKE11 model in the DHI MIKE software developed by the Danish Institute of Water Resources and Water Environment. The coupling model of one dimensional hydrodynamic HD model and rainfall runoff NAM model is established. The model takes into account the physical mechanism of river flow movement and obtains the discharge and water level of different sections of the river according to the San Venan equations, which reflects as much as possible the real situation of river basin confluence, and applies the actual volume of rainfall stations and hydrologic stations in the river basin. The parameters of water level and rainfall data were determined and the model was verified. The simulation results show that the coupling model of HD module and NAM module of MIKE11 model can well simulate the rainfall runoff and river network flow in Nierji control basin, and provide technical support for hydrological data prediction for flood control operation of Nierji reservoir.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV697.13;TV124
【参考文献】
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1 杨春辉;张s，
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