基于大坝安全监测的复合不确定模型优化
发布时间：2018-11-15 06:48
【摘要】：由于大坝安全监测对含有不确定性信息效应量的预测精度要求越来越高,常规模型已经满足不了监控需求,为此,对常规的复合不确定模型进行了改进:考虑到监测样本信息的不足,分配函数用考虑信息增量的二次型代替线型;考虑到隶属度随自变量的变化有一定规律,模糊推理的矩阵运算用贴近度推理替代Max-Min推理,以期提高模型精度;采用综合有效度对建模的结果进行评价。实例分析表明,优化后的不确定模型有效提高了拟合和预测精度,为利用不确定信息对大坝安全进行分析提供了更为精确的手段。
[Abstract]:Because the precision of dam safety monitoring with uncertain information effect is more and more high, the conventional model can not meet the monitoring demand. The conventional compound uncertainty model is improved: considering the shortage of monitoring sample information, the distribution function replaces the linear type with the quadratic form considering the information increment; Considering that the degree of membership varies with independent variables, the matrix operation of fuzzy reasoning replaces Max-Min reasoning with closeness degree reasoning, in order to improve the accuracy of the model, the comprehensive validity degree is used to evaluate the results of modeling. The example analysis shows that the optimized uncertain model can effectively improve the precision of fitting and prediction and provide a more accurate means for the analysis of dam safety by using uncertain information.
【作者单位】： 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心;河海大学水利水电学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279052) 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室研究项目(20145028312)
【分类号】：TV698.1
，
本文编号：2332452
[Abstract]:Because the precision of dam safety monitoring with uncertain information effect is more and more high, the conventional model can not meet the monitoring demand. The conventional compound uncertainty model is improved: considering the shortage of monitoring sample information, the distribution function replaces the linear type with the quadratic form considering the information increment; Considering that the degree of membership varies with independent variables, the matrix operation of fuzzy reasoning replaces Max-Min reasoning with closeness degree reasoning, in order to improve the accuracy of the model, the comprehensive validity degree is used to evaluate the results of modeling. The example analysis shows that the optimized uncertain model can effectively improve the precision of fitting and prediction and provide a more accurate means for the analysis of dam safety by using uncertain information.
【作者单位】： 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心;河海大学水利水电学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51279052) 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室研究项目(20145028312)
【分类号】：TV698.1
，
本文编号：2332452
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