基于DPSIR-PLS模型的中国水贫困评价

发布时间：2018-11-28 10:51

【摘要】：针对现有水贫困评价中系统间缺乏关联性和指标体系未验证的情况,在借鉴原有研究成果的基础上,将基于因果关系的DPSIR模型和PLS结构方程模型相结合,构建中国水贫困评价指标体系和框架模型,并进行验证,最后测算了2003-2014年我国31个省(市)区的水贫困现状。采用ISODATA聚类方法,划分各省区水贫困驱动系统类型,进一步通过核密度估计和马尔科夫链分析水贫困分布的整体形态和演进趋势。结果显示:我国水贫困状况逐渐向"俱乐部收敛"转化,整体呈现良好的发展态势;水贫困类型出现跨越式发展,但流动性较低;不同省区出现严重水贫困、较重水贫困、中度水贫困和微水贫困集聚的现象。评价结果基本可以反映各省区水贫困的实际情况,具有一定的现实意义。
[Abstract]:In view of the lack of correlation between systems and the unverified index system in the existing evaluation of water poverty, the DPSIR model based on causality and the structural equation model of PLS are combined on the basis of the original research results. The evaluation index system and framework model of water poverty in China are constructed and verified. Finally, the present situation of water poverty in 31 provinces (cities) in China from 2003 to 2014 is calculated. The ISODATA clustering method is used to divide the water poverty driving system types of provinces and regions, and the overall shape and evolution trend of water poverty distribution are further analyzed by kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis. The results show that the situation of water poverty in China is gradually transformed to "club convergence", and the overall development trend is good, the type of water poverty has leap-forward development, but the mobility is relatively low. There are serious water poverty, heavy water poverty, moderate water poverty and low water poverty in different provinces. The evaluation results can basically reflect the actual situation of water poverty in provinces and regions, and have certain practical significance.
【作者单位】：辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院;辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学重点基金项目(16AJY009)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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