主观因素影响下河川基流量计算的不确定性分析——以增江中下游为例
发布时间：2018-12-12 13:54
【摘要】：基于增江中下游麒麟咀水文站1958年-1988年以及2006年-2014年的逐日径流资料,根据各种基流分割方法的优缺点,以及增江中下游地区水文地质条件和径流变化特征,首次采用加里宁试算法计算了该地区的基流量,并深入研究了该方法应用过程中主观因素对基流计算结果产生的影响。结果表明,参数的主观差异化选取对加里宁试算法分割确定的河川基流量影响显著。在假定合理范围内确定的退水系数β服从均匀分布时,对应的比例系数B的分布并不会与之一致,基流量是在两个参数的基础上计算的;不考虑主观因素影响时,增江中下游的多年平均基流量为7.8亿m~3,考虑主观因素影响时,置信水平95%的置信区间为6.68~8.72亿m~3,直接计算的结果位于95%的置信区间内,其对应的保证率为41%。因此,考虑基流量计算的主观不确定性不仅能够用于校验计算结果,同时可以提出该计算结果下的保证率,这将为地下水资源管理决策的制定提供重要的依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily runoff data of Kirinzui Hydrologic Station in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River from 1958 to 1988 and from 2006 to 2014, according to the advantages and disadvantages of various basic flow segmentation methods, the hydrogeological conditions and runoff variation characteristics in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River are discussed. For the first time, the basic flow rate in this area is calculated by using the Kalinen test algorithm, and the influence of subjective factors on the calculation results of the base flow is deeply studied. The results show that the subjective selection of parameters has a significant effect on the river base flow determined by the Galinning trial algorithm. The distribution of the proportional coefficient B is not consistent with the uniform distribution of the return coefficient 尾 given in a reasonable range, and the base flow rate is calculated on the basis of two parameters. When subjective factors are not taken into account, the annual average basic discharge of Zengjiang River is 780 million mm3. When subjective factors are considered, the confidence interval of 95% confidence level is 6.68 ~ 872 million mm3. The result of direct calculation is within 95% confidence interval, and the corresponding guarantee rate is 41%. Therefore, considering the subjective uncertainty of base flow calculation can not only be used to verify the calculation results, but also can put forward the guarantee rate under the calculation results, which will provide an important basis for the decision-making of groundwater resources management.
【作者单位】： 河海大学水文水资源学院;水利部水文局;南京市水资源管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41572210)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4
，
本文编号：2374696
[Abstract]:Based on the daily runoff data of Kirinzui Hydrologic Station in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River from 1958 to 1988 and from 2006 to 2014, according to the advantages and disadvantages of various basic flow segmentation methods, the hydrogeological conditions and runoff variation characteristics in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River are discussed. For the first time, the basic flow rate in this area is calculated by using the Kalinen test algorithm, and the influence of subjective factors on the calculation results of the base flow is deeply studied. The results show that the subjective selection of parameters has a significant effect on the river base flow determined by the Galinning trial algorithm. The distribution of the proportional coefficient B is not consistent with the uniform distribution of the return coefficient 尾 given in a reasonable range, and the base flow rate is calculated on the basis of two parameters. When subjective factors are not taken into account, the annual average basic discharge of Zengjiang River is 780 million mm3. When subjective factors are considered, the confidence interval of 95% confidence level is 6.68 ~ 872 million mm3. The result of direct calculation is within 95% confidence interval, and the corresponding guarantee rate is 41%. Therefore, considering the subjective uncertainty of base flow calculation can not only be used to verify the calculation results, but also can put forward the guarantee rate under the calculation results, which will provide an important basis for the decision-making of groundwater resources management.
【作者单位】： 河海大学水文水资源学院;水利部水文局;南京市水资源管理中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41572210)~~
【分类号】：TV213.4
，
本文编号：2374696
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