基于和谐论的襄阳市河湖水系均衡管控研究

发布时间：2018-12-26 19:13

【摘要】：水,是生命之源、生存之本、生态之基、发展之要。广布而流动的河流,在地势的促使下,与湖泊串联或并联起来,组成了复杂的河湖水系网络。与单个河流、湖泊相比,河湖水系其整体水资源承载力、洪涝灾害的抵御能力等有所提升。但是,经济社会的发展在积极改造河湖水系结构、提升水系功能的同时,也会对其产生消极影响,制约河湖水系与经济社会的和谐发展。襄阳市是湖北省的省级副中心城市,其经济社会水平蒸蒸日上,但面临着经济社会发展布局与河湖水系状态不匹配等突出问题。因此,开展河湖水系与经济社会发展和谐关系的定量评估,并提出具体的对策,对指导襄阳市的水生态文明建设、支撑“四个襄阳”建设等具有重要意义。本文在前期研究的基础上,以襄阳市为研究区,开展了基于和谐论的河湖水系状态与经济社会发展和谐量化分析及相应的调控研究。主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:(1)河湖水系状态与经济社会发展和谐量化分析。首先,按照“目标-准则-分类-指标”四个层次,分别从河湖水系的结构、功能以及经济、社会子系统筛选指标构建指标体系。接着,以襄阳市为例,采用“单指标量化-多指标综合-多准则集成”(SMI-P)方法,量化2001~2015年河湖水系状态与经济社会发展整体和谐度的变化。其中,权重确定采用层次分析法和熵权法。(2)关键要素识别。首先,结合社会网络分析,通过构建邻接矩阵,分别从度数中心度、接近度中心度和介数中心度三个指标,借助Ucinet、Pajek软件识别河湖水系状态与经济社会系统和谐关系的关键影响因素。接着,结合灰色关联分析,按照“数据初值化→子母序列绝对差计算→关联系数计算→关联度得出”步骤也同步开展关键影响因素识别。然后,对比分析上述两种方法的结果,并得出最终的结论。(3)河湖水系与经济社会均衡管控模型研究。首先,提出包含模型构建依据和原则、分类及基本形式、管控思路等多方面的均衡管控模型框架;接着,基于和谐调控理论,立足襄阳市实际及关键要素识别结果,设定2个调控方案,并评估调控效果。最后,综合考虑襄阳市整体及三大片区自然地理和水资源条件差异,分别从宏观指导和具体落实两层面提出了均衡管控对策建议。
[Abstract]:Water is the source of life, the basis of survival, the basis of ecological development. Widespread and flowing rivers, spurred by topography, form a complex network of rivers and lakes in series or in parallel. Compared with individual rivers and lakes, the water resources carrying capacity and flood resistance of rivers and lakes have been improved. However, the development of economy and society, while actively reforming the structure of river and lake water system and promoting the function of river system, will also have a negative impact on it and restrict the harmonious development of river and lake water system and economic society. Xiangyang is a provincial sub-central city in Hubei Province, whose economic and social level is booming, but it is confronted with some outstanding problems, such as the mismatch between the distribution of economic and social development and the state of river and lake system. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out the quantitative evaluation of the harmonious relationship between river and lake water system and economic and social development, and to put forward concrete countermeasures to guide the construction of water ecological civilization in Xiangyang and to support the construction of "four Xiangyang". On the basis of previous research, this paper, taking Xiangyang City as the research area, has carried out the harmonious quantitative analysis of river and lake water system and economic and social development based on harmony theory and the corresponding regulation and control research. The main research contents are as follows: (1) quantitative analysis of harmonious relationship between river and lake water system and economic and social development. Firstly, according to the four levels of "goal-Criterion-Classification-Index", the index system is constructed from the structure, function, economic and social subsystem of river and lake system. Then, taking Xiangyang city as an example, the method of "single index quantification-multi-index synthesis-multi-criterion integration" (SMI-P) is adopted to quantify the change of the overall harmony between the river and lake water system and economic and social development from 2001 to 2015. The weights are determined by AHP and entropy. (2) key elements are identified. First of all, combining with the analysis of social network, by constructing the adjacency matrix, the degree of centrality, the degree of closeness and the centricity of the medium are three indexes, respectively, with the help of Ucinet,. Pajek software identifies the key factors influencing the harmonious relationship between river and lake systems and economic and social systems. Then, based on the grey correlation analysis, the key factors identification is also carried out simultaneously according to the steps of "calculating the absolute difference of the data initial value and calculating the correlation coefficient and calculating the correlation degree". Then, the results of the above two methods are compared and analyzed, and the final conclusion is drawn. (3) the model of river and lake water system and economic and social equilibrium management and control. First of all, the paper puts forward the framework of balanced control model including the basis and principle of model construction, classification and basic form, management and control ideas and so on. Then, based on the theory of harmonious regulation and control, based on the results of Xiangyang city's actual and key elements identification, two control schemes are set up and the effects of regulation and control are evaluated. Finally, considering the difference of natural geography and water resources condition of Xiangyang city and three major regions, the author puts forward the balanced control countermeasures from macro guidance and concrete implementation.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TV213.4

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