干旱区社会水文系统演化规律与驱动机制研究
发布时间：2019-01-05 18:31
【摘要】：在“人类纪”时代,人类社会与自然生态组成耦合的社会生态系统。水作为自然生态系统的核心要素,与人类社会也存在密切的相互作用,组成耦合的社会水文系统。干旱区社会水文系统内部的耦合反馈作用更加强烈。研究干旱区社会水文系统演化规律及其驱动机制,对揭示人水相互作用机理、发展相关理论和方法、制定水资源管理政策具有重要的学术意义和实践价值。构建了基于自然-社会二元驱动机制的社会水文系统动态演变分析的理论框架,并构建了基于水量平衡-经济活动-社会决策三层次的社会水文模型框架,提出社会生产力与自然系统变异性之间的相互作用是社会水文系统演化的动力基础。开展了塔里木河流域2000年社会水文动态演化历史的阶段分析,发现外部社会输入的技术与制度因素长期主导了当地社会水文系统发展阶段的演替。进一步针对巴州地区1960-2010年的社会水文动态演化历史的分析表明,在社会生产力逐渐成为社会水文系统演化的主要驱动力的同时,自然条件如水土资源的约束也对社会生产力发展起着关键的塑造作用。为改进对社会决策过程的刻画,定义了表征政策决策者进行耕地-节水政策调控意愿的“决策者敏感度”概念,对政策变量进行结构化定量表达,从而实现对政策演变过程的动态模拟。在此基础上耦合水量平衡和宏观经济模型建立了概念性社会水文模型,模拟了巴州地区1998-2010年间节水农业发展及耕地和节水政策的自适应演变过程,揭示了技术进步的回弹效应与政策调控的适应效应对灌溉效率悖论现象演变的作用机理。基于多种社会调查方法,比较分析了不同人群对节水措施的认识,揭示了由于缺乏对水土资源协调利用的认知,导致节水农业发展时耕地政策过度宽松的社会深层原因。在此基础上,运用干旱区节水农业的社会水文模型,以巴州为例模拟比较了不同初始耕地政策方案对灌溉效率悖论的影响。结果表明,提前采取模型预测的严格耕地政策,可能导致灌溉效率悖论提前发生,且由于灌溉面积增长缓慢而严重伤害农业经济发展;干旱区节水农业发展的初期,在考虑社会水文系统存在耦合反馈的基础上采取适当宽松的耕地政策措施,更有利于经济社会的可持续性发展。研究成果可为干旱区节水农业的政策制定提供参考。
[Abstract]:In the era of the "Human Age", human society and natural ecology constitute a coupled social ecosystem. Water, as the core element of natural ecosystem, also has close interaction with human society to form a coupled social hydrological system. The coupling feedback within the social hydrological system in arid area is stronger. It is of great academic significance and practical value to study the evolution law and driving mechanism of social hydrological system in arid areas, to reveal the mechanism of human-water interaction, to develop relevant theories and methods, and to formulate water resources management policies. The theoretical framework of dynamic evolution analysis of social hydrological system based on natural and social dual driving mechanism is constructed, and the framework of social hydrological model based on three levels of water balance, economic activity and social decision-making is constructed. It is proposed that the interaction between social productivity and variability of natural system is the dynamic basis of the evolution of social hydrological system. The stage analysis of the social hydrological dynamic evolution history in the Tarim River Basin in 2000 is carried out. It is found that the technical and institutional factors imported by the external society have dominated the succession of the local social hydrological system for a long time. The further analysis of the history of social hydrological dynamic evolution from 1960 to 2010 in Bazhou shows that, while social productivity gradually becomes the main driving force of the evolution of social hydrological system, Natural conditions such as the constraints of soil and water resources also play a key role in shaping the development of social productive forces. In order to improve the depiction of the social decision-making process, the concept of "decision-maker sensitivity", which represents the policy decision makers' willingness to regulate and control arable land and water saving policies, is defined, and the policy variables are expressed quantitatively and structurally. In order to realize the dynamic simulation of the policy evolution process. On the basis of this, a conceptual social hydrological model is established by coupling water balance and macroeconomic models, which simulates the development of water-saving agriculture and the adaptive evolution of cultivated land and water-saving policies in Bazhou region during the period 1998-2010. The mechanism of rebound effect of technological progress and adaptive effect of policy regulation on the evolution of paradoxical phenomenon of irrigation efficiency was revealed. Based on a variety of social investigation methods, this paper compares and analyzes the understanding of water-saving measures among different population groups, and reveals the deep social reasons for the excessive looseness of cultivated land policy in the development of water-saving agriculture due to the lack of understanding of the coordinated utilization of water and soil resources. On this basis, the social and hydrological model of water-saving agriculture in arid area was used to simulate and compare the effects of different initial cultivated land policy schemes on irrigation efficiency paradox with Bazhou as an example. The results show that the strict cultivated land policy adopted in advance may lead to the paradox of irrigation efficiency occurring in advance, and the slow growth of irrigated area will seriously harm the development of agricultural economy. In the early stage of the development of water-saving agriculture in arid area, it is more beneficial to the sustainable development of economy and society to adopt appropriate policy measures of loose cultivated land on the basis of considering the coupling feedback of social hydrological system. The research results can provide a reference for the policy formulation of water-saving agriculture in arid area.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4
，
本文编号：2402145
[Abstract]:In the era of the "Human Age", human society and natural ecology constitute a coupled social ecosystem. Water, as the core element of natural ecosystem, also has close interaction with human society to form a coupled social hydrological system. The coupling feedback within the social hydrological system in arid area is stronger. It is of great academic significance and practical value to study the evolution law and driving mechanism of social hydrological system in arid areas, to reveal the mechanism of human-water interaction, to develop relevant theories and methods, and to formulate water resources management policies. The theoretical framework of dynamic evolution analysis of social hydrological system based on natural and social dual driving mechanism is constructed, and the framework of social hydrological model based on three levels of water balance, economic activity and social decision-making is constructed. It is proposed that the interaction between social productivity and variability of natural system is the dynamic basis of the evolution of social hydrological system. The stage analysis of the social hydrological dynamic evolution history in the Tarim River Basin in 2000 is carried out. It is found that the technical and institutional factors imported by the external society have dominated the succession of the local social hydrological system for a long time. The further analysis of the history of social hydrological dynamic evolution from 1960 to 2010 in Bazhou shows that, while social productivity gradually becomes the main driving force of the evolution of social hydrological system, Natural conditions such as the constraints of soil and water resources also play a key role in shaping the development of social productive forces. In order to improve the depiction of the social decision-making process, the concept of "decision-maker sensitivity", which represents the policy decision makers' willingness to regulate and control arable land and water saving policies, is defined, and the policy variables are expressed quantitatively and structurally. In order to realize the dynamic simulation of the policy evolution process. On the basis of this, a conceptual social hydrological model is established by coupling water balance and macroeconomic models, which simulates the development of water-saving agriculture and the adaptive evolution of cultivated land and water-saving policies in Bazhou region during the period 1998-2010. The mechanism of rebound effect of technological progress and adaptive effect of policy regulation on the evolution of paradoxical phenomenon of irrigation efficiency was revealed. Based on a variety of social investigation methods, this paper compares and analyzes the understanding of water-saving measures among different population groups, and reveals the deep social reasons for the excessive looseness of cultivated land policy in the development of water-saving agriculture due to the lack of understanding of the coordinated utilization of water and soil resources. On this basis, the social and hydrological model of water-saving agriculture in arid area was used to simulate and compare the effects of different initial cultivated land policy schemes on irrigation efficiency paradox with Bazhou as an example. The results show that the strict cultivated land policy adopted in advance may lead to the paradox of irrigation efficiency occurring in advance, and the slow growth of irrigated area will seriously harm the development of agricultural economy. In the early stage of the development of water-saving agriculture in arid area, it is more beneficial to the sustainable development of economy and society to adopt appropriate policy measures of loose cultivated land on the basis of considering the coupling feedback of social hydrological system. The research results can provide a reference for the policy formulation of water-saving agriculture in arid area.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TV213.4
，
本文编号：2402145
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