气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响
发布时间：2019-01-14 09:46
【摘要】：利用法国国家气象研究中心气候模型(Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model,CNRM)典型代表性浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景资料和可变下渗容量模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC),分析了淮河流域未来气温、降水、水资源及可能洪水的变化趋势。结果表明,淮河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来2021~2050年较基准期(1961~1990年)升幅分别约为1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈现略微增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021~2050年降水较基准期将分别增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能较好地模拟淮河流域的水文过程,在率定期和检验期,模型对王家坝站和蚌埠站模拟的水量相对误差都在5%以内,日径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数(NSE)在0.70以上,月径流过程的NSE达到0.85以上。气候变化将导致淮河流域水文循环强度增加,流域水资源总体将可能呈增加趋势,王家坝站和蚌埠站断面洪水事件的发生可能性将增大。
[Abstract]:The future temperature of the Huaihe River basin was analyzed by using the (Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP) scenario data of the typical representative concentration path of the climate model (Centre National de Recherches M 茅 t 茅 orologiques Climate Model,CNRM and the variable infiltration capacity model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC) of the National Meteorological Research Center of France. Trends in precipitation, water resources and possible floods. The results show that the future temperature of Huaihe River Basin will continue to rise, and the increase of temperature in the future 2021 ~ 2050 is about 1.13 鈩，
本文编号：2408577
[Abstract]:The future temperature of the Huaihe River basin was analyzed by using the (Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP) scenario data of the typical representative concentration path of the climate model (Centre National de Recherches M 茅 t 茅 orologiques Climate Model,CNRM and the variable infiltration capacity model (Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC) of the National Meteorological Research Center of France. Trends in precipitation, water resources and possible floods. The results show that the future temperature of Huaihe River Basin will continue to rise, and the increase of temperature in the future 2021 ~ 2050 is about 1.13 鈩，
本文编号：2408577
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/shuiwenshuili/2408577.html
