Fisher最优分割法在澄碧河水库汛期分期中的应用

发布时间：2019-02-18 13:51

【摘要】：在深入分析澄碧河流域汛期变化特性的基础上,以澄碧河水库为例,选取暴雨日数、旬平均雨量、旬最大3天雨量、旬多年平均入库流量、年最大洪峰出现次数等5个指标,采用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期研究,将汛期分为前汛期、主汛期和后汛期3个时期。结果表明,Fisher最优分割法不仅能够考虑多个指标,而且能够有效避免常规方法在阈值选取和最优分期数目确定上存在主观性强的缺点;与之前对澄碧河水库分期的相关结果对比,该方法则更为客观科学,分期结果也更加合理可靠。
[Abstract]:On the basis of in-depth analysis of the characteristics of flood season variation in Chengbi River Basin, taking Chengbihe Reservoir as an example, five indexes, such as the number of rainstorm days, the average rainfall in ten days, the maximum rainfall in ten days, the average inflow in ten days and the number of times that Hong Feng appears in each year, are selected. The flood season is divided into three periods: the former, the main and the latter by using the Fisher optimal division method. The results show that the Fisher optimal segmentation method can not only consider multiple indexes, but also effectively avoid the disadvantages of subjectivity in the selection of threshold and the determination of optimal number of stages in conventional methods. Compared with the previous results of Chengbihe Reservoir, this method is more objective and scientific, and the results are more reasonable and reliable.
【作者单位】：广西大学土木建筑工程学院;广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室;广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569003) 广西自然科学基金资助项目(2015GXNSFAA139248) 广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2014ZDX01) 广西水利厅科技项目(201507) 广西高等学校优秀中青年骨干教师培养工程项目(桂教人[2014]39号) 广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCSW2017052)
【分类号】：TV697.13

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