汾河水库流域土地利用变化对径流影响研究

发布时间：2019-03-27 16:23

【摘要】：土地利用变化是引起河川径流变化的一个重要因素，，人类对流域内土地的不同利用方式将导致下垫面也发生变化，进而引起流域的水文循环系统也发生改变。研究汾河水库流域土地利用变化及其对汾河径流的影响，对当地水资源的规划、管理、保护以及社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文依托“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目第4子课题之专题7“汾河入黄径流锐减原因分析”（2012BAB02B0407），通过研究汾河水库流域土地利用变化及其对汾河径流的影响，来说明汾河径流变化的原因以及土地利用变化对汾河径流变化的贡献率。主要研究内容及成果如下：（1）基于GIS技术，应用面积变化法及土地利用空间转换移矩阵分析法，分析了汾河水库流域的土地利用变化情况；采用Kendall秩次相关检验及Spearman秩次相关检验等方法，分析了汾河水库流域气象水文的变化情况。结果表明：汾河水库流域土地利用情况发生了明显的规律性变化。其中耕地、林地、草地及水域面积均有不同程度减少，且减少趋势逐渐增强；草地面积基本没有变化；城镇建设用地大幅增加。另外，汾河水库流域气象水文要素也发生了明显的变化，流域内的降雨、径流、风速、露点温度及太阳辐射都呈现减少趋势，平均气温与相对湿度呈现增大趋势。（2）对收集到的气象水文、DEM、土地利用、土壤类型等资料进行整理转换，建立SWAT模型数据库；在此基础上通过数据输入、初步模拟、参数敏感性分析、模型校准及模型验证等步骤，完成汾河水库流域SWAT模型的建立。（3）基于SWAT水文模型以及水量平衡原理，利用汾河水库流域1970年、1990年、2000年、2005年及2010年5期土地利用数据，分析了汾河水库流域土地利用变化对汾河径流量、径流年内分配的影响，以及土地利用变化对汾河径流变化的贡献率。根据汾河水库流域土地利用变化分析结果划分1961~1985年及1985~2010年分别为流域下垫面环境变化的自然期和变化期。在以自然期数据建立的模型的基础上，通过控制单一变量（气象、土地利用等）代换分别分析在变化期相对于自然期因土地利用变化引起的径流变化情况。
[Abstract]:Land use change is an important factor that causes river runoff change. The different land use patterns in the watershed will lead to the change of the underlying surface and the hydrological circulation system of the basin. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the land use change in Fenhe reservoir basin and its influence on the runoff of Fenhe River. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to the planning, management, protection of local water resources and the sustainable development of social economy. Based on theme 7 of the fourth sub-topic of the 12th five-year Plan of State Science and Technology support Plan, "Analysis of the causes of sharp reduction of runoff from Fenhe River into the Yellow River" (2012BAB02B0407), this paper studies the land use change in Fenhe reservoir basin and its impact on Fenhe runoff. This paper explains the reason of the runoff change of Fenhe River and the contribution rate of land use change to the runoff change of Fenhe River. The main research contents and achievements are as follows: (1) based on GIS technology, the land use change of Fenhe reservoir basin is analyzed by using area change method and land use spatial transformation matrix analysis method; By means of Kendall rank correlation test and Spearman rank correlation test, the variation of meteorological hydrology in Fenhe reservoir basin is analyzed. The results show that the land use of Fenhe reservoir basin has changed regularly. The area of cultivated land, forest land, grassland and water area decreased to some extent, and the decreasing trend gradually increased; the grassland area basically did not change; the urban construction land increased greatly. In addition, the meteorological and hydrological factors of Fenhe reservoir basin also changed obviously. The rainfall, runoff, wind speed, dew point temperature and solar radiation in the basin all showed a decreasing trend, and the average air temperature and relative humidity showed an increasing trend. (2) the data collected from meteorological hydrology, DEM, land use, soil type and so on were processed and transformed, and the SWAT model database was established. On this basis, through data input, preliminary simulation, parameter sensitivity analysis, model calibration and model verification, the establishment of SWAT model of Fenhe reservoir basin was completed. (3) based on the SWAT hydrological model and the principle of water balance, the land use data of Fenhe Reservoir Basin in 1970, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010 were used to analyze the runoff of Fenhe River from land use change in Fenhe Reservoir Basin. The influence of runoff distribution during the year and the contribution rate of land use change to the runoff change of Fenhe River. According to the analysis results of land use change in Fenhe reservoir basin, the natural period and the period of change of the underlying surface environment were divided into 1961 ~ 1985 and 1985 ~ 2010, respectively. Based on the model based on natural period data, the runoff change caused by land use change during the period of change is analyzed by controlling the single variable (weather, land use, etc.) substitution.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV121

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