突发性灾害事件风险感知的动态特征——来自网络搜索的证据

发布时间：2018-08-26 17:03

【摘要】：面对突发性灾害事件,及时、全面了解公众的风险感知水平对于实现有效的风险沟通和危机管理具有重要意义。本文将网络搜索作为反映公众在突发性灾害事件下风险感知水平的指标,利用搜索引擎关键词分析方法,以汶川地震、玉树地震和雅安地震为对象,从时间演变和空间分布两个维度分析了地震后公众风险感知的动态特征。研究结果表明,突发性灾害事件发生后,公众风险感知迅速跳上高位,并且集中在受灾害事件直接影响地区,之后呈指数形式快速下降,同时逐渐向非受灾地区扩散。文章最后提出政策建议,危机管理要针对公众风险感知的动态变化进行调整,根据不同时期、不同地域公众的风险感知特征,引导公众积极克服危机。
[Abstract]:In the face of sudden disaster events, timely and comprehensive understanding of the level of public risk awareness is of great significance for effective risk communication and crisis management. This paper regards the network search as the index to reflect the risk perception level of the public under the sudden disaster event, uses the search engine keyword analysis method, takes Wenchuan earthquake, Yushu earthquake and Ya'an earthquake as the object, and takes the Wenchuan earthquake, the Yushu earthquake and the Ya'an earthquake as the objects. The dynamic characteristics of public risk perception after earthquake are analyzed from two dimensions of time evolution and spatial distribution. The results show that after the sudden disaster event, the public risk perception rapidly jumps to a high level, and concentrates in the area directly affected by the disaster event, then decreases rapidly in an exponential form, and gradually spreads to the non-disaster area. Finally, the article puts forward the policy recommendations, crisis management should be adjusted to the dynamic changes of public risk perception, according to different periods, different regions of the public risk perception characteristics, guide the public to actively overcome the crisis.
【作者单位】：西南交通大学经济管理学院;香港中文大学工商管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71090402) 西南交通大学博士研究生创新基金中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金
【分类号】：D63

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