河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性指标及应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 21:01

本文选题：狭义/广义水资源脆弱性　切入点：PSR指标集合　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：气候变化和人类活动对我国水资源系统的影响不断加深,出现水资源短缺、水环境污染、水土流失、旱涝事件频繁等一系列问题,水资源系统表现出强烈的脆弱性。本文对水资源脆弱性理论与应用进行了研究。主要研究内容及成果如下： (1)根据人类社会对水资源系统是否采取适应性措施,将水资源脆弱性分为狭义水资源脆弱性(Narrow Water Resources Vulnerability,简称NWRV)和广义水资源脆弱性(General Water Resources Vulnerability,简称GWRV)。 (2)运用问题树模型定性分析我国水资源脆弱性问题；在定性分析基础上,建立水资源脆弱性PSR (pressure-state-response,简称PSR)指标集,分别用PS和PSR评价狭义和广义水资源脆弱性；并提出水资源脆弱性阈值评价方法；运用阈值、最严格水资源管理制度以及供需平衡理论,提出水资源脆弱性的综合适应管理模式。 (3)以我国西北内陆区生态问题存在最为严重的河西走廊地区及其疏勒河、黑河、石羊河三个流域为例进行水资源脆弱性评价。运用问题树模型定性分析出河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性存在的主客观因素。运用聚类中心确定标准化取值；运用层次分析法确定指标权重。 (4)对2000-2010年河西走廊地区及其三个流域的水资源脆弱性指标脆弱程度、脆弱性结果、各指标贡献率以及阈值进行分析。河西走廊及其疏勒河、黑河和石羊河三个流域GWRV均处于重度脆弱,均值分别为0.7341、0.6876、0.7092、0.7653。河西走廊地区NWRV和GWRV呈现平行变化规律；GWRV反映具有人类适应性措施的脆弱程度,相对NWRV平均有8.86%的下降空间,更能代表实际现状的水资源系统的脆弱程度。受人为因素影响较大的指标贡献率为65%左右,其中以水资源开发利用率、万元GDP用水量、亩均用水量这三个指标为关键指标。在较为理想的A1模式下,河西走廊地区的水资源脆弱性阈值下限为0.2367,为轻度脆弱；若发展控制不好,按照B1模式,河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性上限为0.9528,为极脆弱。 (5)以2020年为情景年,在20%、50%、75%、95%四种来水频率下,运用阈值、最严格水资源管理制度、供需平衡以及综合适应管理四种理论,对河西走廊地区水资源脆弱性进行适应管理研究。结果表明,阈值管理模式较为理想；最严格水资源管理制度和供需平衡在根本上不能改变河西走廊地区水资源脆弱状态；综合适应管理能使河西走廊地区水资源脆弱呈中等脆弱状态,但需要从降低农业用水总量、水资源利用总量和万元GDP用水量等方面采取措施。本文创新的地方主要体现在水资源脆弱性的概念、问题树分析、指标评价集、阈值评价方法、综合适应管理以及针对河西走廊及其三个流域进行系列年和情景年评价等方面。本文针对水资源脆弱性理论与应用的研究,能够为政府水利相关部门进行水资源规划管理提供决策支撑。
[Abstract]:The impact of climate change and human activities on water resources system in our country and the deepening of emergence of the shortage of water resources, water pollution, soil erosion, drought and flood events frequent a series of problems such as water resources system showed a strong vulnerability. In this paper, and use of water resources vulnerability theory. The main research contents and the results are as follows:
(1) according to the adaptability measures of human society to water resources system, the vulnerability of water resources can be divided into Narrow Water Resources Vulnerability (Resources) and generalized water resources vulnerability (General Water Resources Vulnerability, referred to as GWRV).
(2) the use of qualitative problem tree model analysis the vulnerability of water resources in China; on the basis of qualitative analysis, the establishment of water resource vulnerability in PSR (Pressure-State-Response, PSR) index set, respectively PS and PSR evaluation of narrow sense and Guang Yishui resources vulnerability; and put forward water resources vulnerability assessment method using threshold threshold; and the most strict water resources management system and the balance of supply and demand theory, the vulnerability of water resources comprehensive management mode to adapt.
(3) to the northwest area ecological problems in China is the most serious area of Hexi Corridor and the Shule River, Heihe, three case of Shiyang River Basin water resources vulnerability assessment. Using qualitative problem tree model analysis of water resources in Hexi corridor the fragility of the subjective and objective factors. Using the cluster center to determine the standard values; use AHP to determine the index weight.
(4) in Hexi Corridor Area for 2000-2010 years and three watershed water resources vulnerability index of vulnerability and vulnerability results, each index contribution rate and threshold were analyzed. The Hexi Corridor and the Shule River in Heihe, and three in Shiyang River Basin GWRV are severe fragile, respectively NWRV and GWRV mean 0.7341,0.6876,0.7092,0.7653. in Hexi Corridor showed parallel changes; GWRV reflects the degree of vulnerability of human adaptation measures, compared to the NWRV average of 8.86% of the decline in space, the vulnerability of water resources system can represent the actual situation. The influence factors of large index contribution rate is about 65%, the rate of development and utilization of water resources, water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP mu, the three indexes of water as the key indicators. In the ideal A1 mode, fragile Hexi Corridor Area Water Resources threshold limit of 0.2367, mild crisp Weak, if the development control is not good, according to the B1 model, the upper limit of water resources vulnerability in the Hexi corridor area is 0.9528, which is extremely fragile.
(5) in 2020 for the scene in 20% years, 50%, 75%, 95% and four, using the threshold value, the frequency of runoff, the most stringent water management system, supply and demand balance and comprehensive management to adapt to the theory of four kinds of water resources in Hexi Corridor Area of vulnerability to management research. The results show that the threshold is an ideal management mode; the most strict water resources management system and the balance of supply and demand in the fundamental change of water resources in Hexi corridor can not adapt to the fragile state; comprehensive management of water resources in Hexi corridor area can make the fragile ofmoderate vulnerable state, but from the need to reduce the total amount of water for agriculture, water resources utilization and the total amount of yuan GDP water consumption of such measures.
This article innovation place mainly in the water resource vulnerability concept, problem tree analysis, evaluation index set, threshold evaluation method, comprehensive management and adapt to the series and scenario evaluation for years in Hexi Corridor and the three basin. This article research on vulnerability theory and application for water resources, can provide decision support for the relevant government departments of water conservancy planning of water resources management.

【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV213.4

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