基于区间规划的能源系统模型研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 03:22

本文关键词：基于区间规划的能源系统模型研究　出处：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源系统涉及社会经济、能源、环境等领域,包括能源开发、供应、调度、消费等环节,研究与分析能源系统、合理规划能源结构可对国家、地区和部门等不同层次能源的需求、供应、转换以及新技术开发提供科学以及实用的技术手段。而分析及优化能源系统问题,必然要面临各种涉及因素的大量不确定性,时间上的长周期性,空间上与周围环境的密切联系性,能源及能载体流动过程中错综复杂的相互影响关系；因此,将能源系统中的各类因素数字化、关系公式化,采用一定的优化方法来处理能源系统中的不确定性,建立合理、有效的能源系统规划模型是必要的,也是我们目前所迫切需要的。本文针对中国国家具体的能源背景,开发了一个针对中国能源系统的“模拟预测+优化”的两阶段的规划模型,前端预测子过程主要介绍了需电量预测采用的时间序列方法的自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型；而后以系统成本为最小目标,充分考虑能源生产、加工、转换、能源中间消费及终端消费、输配电、进出口以及污染物处理排放等环节,建立中国能源系统优化子模型,优化子模型求解基于模拟预测结果数据。模型规划期为未来10年,规划区域为全中国,属于中期大尺度‘经济-能源-电力-环境’规划模型；模型求解采用区间规划方法,系统中的不确定性可得到较好处理；另外,模型还能与国家政策(如碳减排政策)充分结合。模型对我国一次能源和终端能源的供需结构,发电产业结构,污染物排放和综合成本核算、碳减排等方面综合分析,对决策者在未来能源规划方面有较实际的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The energy system relates to the social economy, energy, environment and other fields, including energy development, supply, scheduling, consumption and other aspects of research and analysis, energy system, reasonable planning of national energy structure, regions and departments at different levels of energy demand, supply, transformation and development of new technologies to provide technical means of scientific and practical. The analysis and optimization of energy system, must face the various factors involved in a large number of uncertainties, long period of time, space and environment are closely interrelated, interaction between the energy and the carrier mobility in the process of perplexing relations; therefore, the energy system in the various factors, digital formula. Some optimized methods to deal with the uncertainty in the energy system, establish a reasonable and effective model of energy system planning is necessary, and we are in urgent need of. In this paper China country specific energy background, planning model is developed for a China energy system "simulation + optimization" is the two stage of the front end sub process mainly introduces the prediction of time series prediction method of the electricity needs of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model; and then to the cost of the system is the minimum target, give full consideration to energy production, processing, conversion, energy consumption and intermediate terminal consumption, transmission and distribution, import and export and processing of pollutants emissions, establish the model of optimal China energy system optimization model based on the data of simulation results. Model of the planning period of the next 10 years, regional planning for the whole China, belonging to mid large scale "economy - energy - power - environment" planning model; the model is solved using interval programming method, the uncertainty of system can get better treatment; in addition, the model also with national policies (such as carbon emission reduction policies) combined with. The comprehensive analysis of China's primary and secondary energy supply and demand structure, power generation industry structure, pollutant emissions and comprehensive cost accounting, carbon emission reduction and other aspects has practical guiding significance for policymakers in future energy planning.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.2

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