基于熵理论的CH公司财务风险预警模型研究

发布时间：2017-12-28 05:26

本文关键词：基于熵理论的CH公司财务风险预警模型研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,大量的物理学研究成果被运用到管理实践领域,为企业优化管理流程、提升管理效率提供了技术手段。熵一词源自希腊语,表达变化之意。熵理论是测量系统有序度的标准方法,熵以熵变为其表现形式。熵变即系统熵值增加或减少的变化,反应系统向有序或无序方向发展的转化趋势。熵变存在于每一个系统中,并伴随该系统发展的始终。如果把企业看成一个综合性系统,其在经营发展的过程中,熵值随时都在发生变化,即企业财务风险程度每时每刻都在因熵变而改变。本文尝试将熵理论运用到CH公司财务预警之中,弥补其现有财务风险预警方法的不足与缺陷。本文首先通过梳理国内外文献,总结了有关学者进行财务风险预警的研究成果,并进行了相关理论分析,阐述了基于熵理论进行财务风险预警的基本原理、理论模型及将熵理论应用于财务风险预警的可行性与优越性。文章从CH公司财务风险预警的组织架构、基本制度、现有财务预警方法等方面介绍了CH公司财务预警的现状,并分析了现有方法存在的缺陷,从而引出构建基于熵理论的CH公司财务预警模型的必要性。具体构建了基于熵理论的CH公司财务预警模型:第一步构建指标体系,第二步构建初始待评价矩阵并将数据标准化,第三步结合熵变思想确定各指标熵值,第四步定义各指标熵权大小,最后一步求得CH公司各年综合负熵值,以此判断CH公司财务风险水平大小,并合理预测CH公司未来几年财务风险水平。对CH公司使用熵理论预警模型提出了保障措施,包括统筹过渡期间预警工作、加强预警人员素质培训、完善财务指标体系、加强财务系统信息化建设、适时评估修正等内容。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a large number of research achievements in physics have been applied to the field of management practice, providing a technical means for the enterprise to optimize the management process and improve the efficiency of management. The word entropy is derived from the Greek language to express the meaning of change. Entropy theory is the standard method to measure the order degree of the system, and entropy is changed into its form by entropy. Entropy change is the change of entropy increasing or decreasing, and the transformation trend of the reaction system in order or disorder direction. The entropy change exists in every system and is accompanied by the development of the system. If we regard the enterprise as a comprehensive system, its entropy will change at any time in the process of business development, that is, the degree of financial risk of enterprises is changing all the time because of the entropy change. This paper tries to apply entropy theory to the financial early-warning of CH company to make up for the deficiency and defect of the existing financial risk early warning method. Firstly, through combing the literature at home and abroad, summarizes the research results of the scholars of the financial risk early warning, and the related theoretical analysis, elaborated the financial risk early warning based on entropy theory basic principle, theoretical model and the feasibility and superiority of the application of entropy theory in financial risk pre warning. This article introduces the present situation of financial early-warning of CH company from the financial risk early warning of CH company's organizational structure and the basic system, the existing financial early-warning methods, and analyzes the drawbacks of the methods, which leads to the necessity of building the financial early-warning model based on entropy theory CH. The specific construction of the financial early-warning model based on entropy theory of CH company: the first step is to construct the index system, the second step is to construct the initial evaluation matrix and data standardization, the third step combined with the entropy thought to determine the entropy, the entropy of each index defined fourth step size, the last step to obtain the CH company the comprehensive negative entropy. In order to determine the CH company's financial risk levels, and a reasonable forecast of CH company over the next few years the level of financial risk. This paper puts forward safeguard measures for CH company by using the entropy theory early warning model, including the early warning work during the overall transition period, strengthening the quality training of the early warning personnel, improving the financial index system, strengthening the informatization construction of the financial system, and timely assessing and revising.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.6;F406.7

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