我国制造业能源消费变化趋势的因素分析——基于规模、效率与结构的三维视角

发布时间：2017-12-31 01:10

本文关键词：我国制造业能源消费变化趋势的因素分析——基于规模、效率与结构的三维视角　出处：《工业经济论坛》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从"规模-效率-结构"三维视角,对2004年至2014年我国制造业能源消费变化趋势进行因素分解,结果表明规模扩张是制造业能源消费需求上升的主要推力,效率提升、产业结构调整对能源消费具有抑制作用。效率提升对于制造业能源消费下降的贡献最大,但效率提升速度趋于减缓态势,产业结构优化仍存在一定潜力。构建面板变系数模型分析制造业内部能源差异,石油加工、冶金、化工等行业能源自发消费和边际消费系数较高,是能源消耗的主力。通过情景分析,预测"十三五"时期我国制造业能源消费需求变化趋势。
[Abstract]:From the "Three - scale efficiency structure" perspective, from 2004 to 2014 China's manufacturing industry energy consumption trend of factor decomposition, the result shows that the scale of expansion is the main thrust, rising energy consumption and increase the efficiency of the manufacturing industry, the adjustment of industrial structure has inhibitory effect on energy consumption. To enhance the efficiency of the maximum for energy consumption in manufacturing the decline in contributions, but to enhance the efficiency of speed will slow down trend, the optimization of the industrial structure still has certain potential. To construct a panel of variable coefficient model to analyze manufacturing internal energy differences, petroleum processing, metallurgy, chemical industry, energy consumption and spontaneous marginal consumption coefficient is high, energy consumption is the main force. Through scenario analysis, China's manufacturing industry changes energy consumption demand trend forecast "13th Five-Year" period.

【作者单位】：中国电子信息产业发展研究院规划所;
【分类号】：F426.2
【正文快照】： 引言制造业是发展国民经济、保障国家安全、改善社会民生的重要基石,当前,我国提出了制造强国建设的三个十年“三步走”的战略,并出台了《中国制造2 0 2 5》作为第一个十年行动纲领。随着制造业的不断发展,制造业对能源的消费需求也在不断增加。根据2014年数据,我国总能源消

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