我国制造业企业信用风险变动及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-01 17:35

本文关键词：我国制造业企业信用风险变动及影响因素分析　出处：《延边大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：对我国制造业行业而言,信用风险问题是所有经营管理者关心的问题。特别是2008年的经济危机,使得信用风险的关注主体从银行转移到企业,信用风险的高低不仅关乎企业的未来的信用借贷,甚至通过种种影响,进而影响到企业的盈利,最终影响企业的命运。制造业是我国的国民经济基础,也是我国国民经济健康发展的重要保障,然而由于受到2008年的经济危机的影响,我国的制造业、船舶、钢铁贸易等均被列入高风险行业,而且由于我国宏观经济走势趋缓、成本上升、出口疲软等原因,使得制造业未来的发展面临较大的挑战,信用风险问题开始暴露并日益严重。当然,并不是所有的制造业企业都是问题重重,有部分企业一直保持较低的信用风险,有部分企业经历了较高的信用风险,但通过种种努力,最终摘ST(被特别处理的帽子),成功转型；也有一部分企业在经历了较高的信用风险后,一蹶不振,最终走向退市。在这种情况下,研究企业的信用风险动态及其影响因素,具有较大的意义。本文首先梳理了有关信用风险的国内外研究现状,汇总整理了有关信用风险的文献,归纳了学者们的研究成果以及对本文的启发。然后阐述了关于信用风险的相关理论以及我国信用风险的现状,并从偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力、发展能力的角度对信用风险的影响因素进行初步分析。之后,利用SPSS软件对初始指标进行因子分析,对初始指标进行降维,得出信用风险的影响因素。最后,通过实证分析的判别分析法,得出信用风险变动的影响因素。实证结果表明,流动比率、销售利润率、资产负债率、资产增长率是影响信用风险变动的主要因素。
[Abstract]:For the manufacturing industry in our country, the credit risk problem is all business managers concerned. Especially the 2008 economic crisis, credit risk transfer makes the main concerns from the bank to the enterprise credit risk level is not only related to the future of the enterprise credit, even by various effects, thereby affecting the profitability of enterprises finally, influence the fate of the enterprise. The manufacturing industry is the foundation of the national economy, and it is an important guarantee for the healthy development of our national economy, however, due to the impact of the economic crisis in 2008, China's manufacturing industry, shipbuilding, steel trade were included in the high risk industry, but because of China's macroeconomic trends slowed the reason, the rising cost of weak exports, the future development of the manufacturing industry is facing greater challenges, credit risk problems begin to emerge and become increasingly serious. Of course, not all manufacturing Enterprises are the problems, some enterprises have maintained low credit risk, some enterprises have experienced higher credit risk, but through the efforts, the final pick ST (special treatment hat), the successful transformation; there is also a part of the enterprise after high unable to get up after a fall of credit risk, and ultimately to withdraw from the market. In this case, the credit risk factors and their effect on the dynamic enterprise, has great significance. This paper reviews the research status quo of credit risk at home and abroad, summarized the related literatures on credit risk, summarizes the research achievements of scholars and the inspiration for this article. Then expounds the related theory about credit risk and credit risk situation of our country, and from the solvency, operating capacity, profitability, factors affecting the development ability of credit risk analysis, The factor analysis of the initial index by using the SPSS software, is used to reduce the dimensionality of the original index, influencing factors of the credit risk. Finally, the discriminant analysis method of empirical analysis, the effect of credit risk factors. The empirical results show that the liquidity ratio, profit rate, asset liability ratio, asset growth rate is the main influencing factors the credit risk changes.

【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F425;F406.7

【参考文献】