电力市场价格效应分析与国民经济关联预警平台开发

发布时间：2018-01-02 02:12

本文关键词：电力市场价格效应分析与国民经济关联预警平台开发　出处：《电力建设》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：电力工业是关系到国民经济命脉的重要行业,对电力市场环境下电价变动的影响因素和经济效应进行分析,并对可能造成的危机进行有效预警,有助于确保国民经济的持续健康发展。通过模拟包含火电、水电、核电、风电和光伏发电等多种发电类型的电力市场交易,实现了6维度180粒度的价格效应分析。基于投入产出表研究了国内市场电价及国际市场汇率对国民经济的影响,建立宏观、微观2层次,包含43个指标的4级预警体系,实现电力市场与国民经济的多层次、多指标关联预警。使用本软件对我国西北某省的实际系统进行模拟分析,得到较为可靠的分析结果,可为新一轮电力市场改革及产业结构调整升级提供理论指导。
[Abstract]:Power industry is an important industry related to the lifeblood of the national economy. This paper analyzes the influence factors and economic effects of electricity price changes in the electricity market environment, and gives an effective early warning of the possible crisis. It helps to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of the national economy. Through the simulation of electricity market transactions including thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaic power generation and other types of electricity market transactions. Based on the input-output table, this paper studies the influence of the domestic market electricity price and the international market exchange rate on the national economy, and establishes two levels of macro and micro. A 4-level early warning system with 43 indexes is used to realize the multi-level and multi-index correlation early warning between the electricity market and the national economy. The software is used to simulate and analyze the actual system of a certain province in the northwest of China. The results can provide theoretical guidance for the new round of electricity market reform and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学电气工程学院;
【基金】：国家电网公司科技项目(DZN17201500036)
【分类号】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 0引言电力工业是支撑国民经济和社会发展的基础性行业,关系到国民经济命脉、国家能源安全和社会稳定,是我国向中等发达国家迈进的重要基础[1-2]。随着我国市场经济的不断发展,电力工业的产业结构、与国民经济各部门间的产业关联等都发生了巨大变化[3]。根据国内外电力工业的

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