我国金融压力与工业增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 20:43

本文关键词：我国金融压力与工业增长关系的实证研究　出处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：选取银行、证券、外汇、外部市场四部门具有代表性的7个变量构建金融压力指数及各部门压力指数,并测度我国2002年至2013年的金融压力,进而运用VAR模型研究金融压力与工业增长之间的关系,比较分析两者在全样本期、高压力期及低压力期的关系以及在二者关系中银行部门的重要性。研究结果表明,构建的金融压力指数能较好地拟合样本期的金融压力并预测系统风险状况;金融压力是工业增长的单向格兰杰原因;高压力时期,金融压力对工业增长的冲击具有显著的负效应和较长的持续效应,以促进工业增长来减少金融压力的政策是可行的,而在低压力时期,金融压力对工业增长的冲击具有明显的正效应,即一定程度的金融压力是有助于经济运行的;工业增长受到银行和证券部门压力的冲击时反应大,证券部门居首,达到30%,银行部门居于第二位,达到12.4%,所以在重视银行业稳定的同时,更要重视证券部门的影响。
[Abstract]:Select the bank, securities, foreign exchange, has 7 variables representative of the construction of financial pressure index and the Department of pressure index of external market and the four sector, the measure of our country from 2002 to 2013 the financial pressure, and then use the VAR model to study the relationship between financial pressure and industrial growth, comparison and analysis in the whole sample period, the importance of the relationship between high the pressure and low pressure stage and the relationship between the two in the banking sector. The results show that the financial stress index system construction can better fit the risk prediction of the sample period of financial pressure and financial pressure; Grainger is a one-way reason of industrial growth; high pressure period, lingering effects of the financial pressure has negative effect and long significant impact of industrial growth, to promote industrial growth to reduce the financial pressure of the policy is feasible, but in low pressure period, the financial pressure on the industry growth The impact has obvious positive effect, that the degree of financial pressure is conducive to economic operation; big reaction of industrial growth by banks and securities department pressure, securities department first, reached 30%, the banking sector is second, reached 12.4%, so in the importance of the stability of the banking industry at the same time, more attention should be paid to the influence of the securities sector.

【作者单位】：吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心暨经济学院;万联证券有限责任公司;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目(12BJY160);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD022)
【分类号】：F424;F832
【正文快照】： 一、引言20世纪80年代以来,国际金融动荡频发,不仅给当事国造成巨大的经济损失,严重减缓了这些国家经济的长期增长速度,而且对其他国家的经济造成冲击。特别是以次贷危机为根源的全球性金融危机,冲击了整个世界经济体系。我国金融市场起步晚,在全球金融创新的大背景下,金融机

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