采用模糊云模型的武器研制项目风险传导评估

发布时间：2018-01-20 04:51

本文关键词： 云模型单一影响因子云标尺可能度三角模糊数风险传导评估　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2016年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为实现对武器研制项目风险传导的客观精细化评估,采用模糊云模型的评估算法,首先计算单一风险传导影响因子对进度、费用和性能风险产生的影响大小;然后,通过加权求和的方式计算所有风险传导影响因子产生的总影响;再基于可能度理论,给出三角模糊数互补判断矩阵的排序方法,得到综合风险值;最后,结合X-51发动机项目研制实例,通过仿真运算,得出单一影响因子对风险影响大小值和总风险排序值,明确需要加强监控和管理的指标.仿真结果表明,验证了构建的风险传导识别与评估方法的有效性和可行性,为武器装备研制项目风险传导的管理者提供了决策参考.
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the risk transmission of weapon development project objectively and meticulously, the fuzzy cloud model is used to calculate the influence of single risk conduction factor on schedule, cost and performance risk. Then, the total effects of all risk conduction factors are calculated by weighted summation. Then, based on the possibility degree theory, the sorting method of triangular fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix is given, and the comprehensive risk value is obtained. Finally, combined with the X-51 engine project development example, through the simulation operation, the single influence factor to the risk magnitude value and the total risk ranking value are obtained. Clear the indicators that need to strengthen monitoring and management. The simulation results show that the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed risk conduction identification and evaluation method are verified. It provides a decision reference for the risk transmission manager of weapon equipment development project.
【作者单位】：空军工程大学防空反导学院;
【基金】：航空科学基金重点资助(20120469801)
【分类号】：F407.48
【正文快照】： 武器装备研制是一个庞大而复杂的系统工程,包括从立项到定型研制的全过程,由于其规模大、周期长、技术新等特点,导致了武器装备的研制过程充满了不确定性和风险性[1].目前,国内外关于武器装备研制项目风险的研究也较多,Mavris等[2]提出了一种技术识别评估与选择法(technologyi

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