中国CPI、PPI的分化与通缩

发布时间：2018-02-26 09:22

本文关键词： CPI PPI 通货紧缩债务　出处：《国际经济评论》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自2012年3月以来,中国的消费者价格指数(CPI)、生产者价格指数(PPI)一直保持一正一负的状态,其走势分化的时间之长、缺口之大都实属罕见。这种不同物价指数的走势分化也使得经济学家在对未来经济走向的判断和政策建议上出现了明显分歧。但事实上,类似现象在其他一些发达国家并不乏先例。本文整理了一些典型"通缩"期的CPI、PPI表现,以及文献中对于度量通胀指标的评价,并结合CPI的先导指标预测,认为当前中国的情况更接近于通货紧缩。基于这一判断,我们进一步分析了CPI、PPI走势对当前"债务-通缩"循环的影响。本文认为CPI、PPI一正一负的组合不仅不会扭转对于当前通缩的判断,反而会恶化本轮"债务-通缩"循环。因此政府有必要针对PPI持续下行的现象,执行反通缩的货币、财政政策。
[Abstract]:Since March 2012, China's consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) have remained in a positive and negative state for a long time. Most of the gaps are rare. This divergence in price index movements has also led economists to diverge in their judgments and policy recommendations on the future direction of the economy. But in fact, There are precedents for similar phenomena in some other developed countries. This paper presents some typical "deflationary" periods of CPIP-PI performance, as well as the literature on the measurement of inflation indicators, and combined with the CPI forerunner forecast, Based on the conclusion that the current situation in China is closer to deflation, We further analyze the influence of CPI PPI trends on the current debt-deflation cycle. This paper argues that the CPII-PPI combination of one positive and one negative will not reverse the judgment of current deflation. Instead, it will worsen the debt-deflation cycle. So it is necessary for the government to implement anti-deflation monetary and fiscal policies in response to the persistent downward trend of PPI.
【作者单位】：北京大学国家发展研究院;
【分类号】：F424;F726

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