基于PMI分解的制造业损失评估

发布时间：2018-02-28 03:38

  本文关键词： 制造业PMI 本底趋势线 X-A-S 损失评估　出处：《统计研究》2016年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2008年金融危机对我国制造业造成巨大冲击,对危机的影响进行评估对于建立科学的危机预防机制具有重要的意义。本文运用X-13A-S模型将我国制造业PMI进行分解,研究各成分在危机期间的波动情况,分析金融危机的动态演变过程并构建本底趋势线进行损失评估,最后划分金融危机的生命周期。研究结果表明:(1)X-13A-S模型对指数调整效果较好,长期波动趋势分为三个时期;季节成分波动表现为"三波峰、三波谷";异常值与危机事件相对应。(2)金融危机全面爆发前期PMI指数损失5.11%,平均损失1.28%;爆发后期指数损失49.31%,平均损失4.11%,本轮危机共损失54.42个百分点。(3)2008年1月至4月为金融危机生成期,2008年5月至12月为全面爆发期,2009年1月至5月为衰退期,2009年6月至8月为消亡期,整个危机持续16个月。(4)金融危机全面爆发时期以8月份为分界点,表现出"前期趋势-循环成分,后期不规则变动"的动态机制。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis had a great impact on the manufacturing industry of our country. It is of great significance to evaluate the impact of the crisis for the establishment of a scientific crisis prevention mechanism. This paper uses X-13A-S model to decompose the PMI of our manufacturing industry. This paper studies the fluctuation of various components during the crisis, analyzes the dynamic evolution process of the financial crisis, constructs a background trend line for loss assessment, and finally divides the life cycle of the financial crisis. The trend of long-term fluctuation is divided into three periods; the seasonal component fluctuates as "three peaks," "three troughs"; abnormal value corresponds to crisis event.) PMI index loss 5.11, average loss 1.28 before the financial crisis broke out; Index loss 49.31, average loss 4.11, average loss 54.42 percentage points from January 2008 to April. The period from May 2008 to June 2009 is a full-blown period, the period from January 2009 to #date鈪，

本文编号：1545599