BIM技术在建筑业企业中扩散趋势研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 18:26

本文选题：建筑信息模型(BIM)　切入点：技术扩散　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：BIM是将与建设工程项目有关的全部信息通过数字化在计算机中表达出来的一项技术。BIM技术在我国建筑业行业中的普及是必然的,但目前该技术在我国的应用还不够广泛。预测BIM技术在我国建筑业企业中的扩散趋势,首先可以得到扩散速度最快的时间段,这就为建筑业企业何时在本企业采纳BIM技术提供了一定的参考依据。其次,知道了BIM技术在未来的扩散趋势,可以为政府部门对BIM技术在应用过程中进行规范管理等提供科学的决策依据,如何时制定BIM技术标准、何时制定BIM技术发展规划等。在应用Bass模型对新技术的扩散趋势进行预测而缺乏充足的数据时,常用的参数估计方法有类比法和判断法。本文从BIM技术在建筑业企业中的扩散出发,先通过和19种信息技术创新扩散进行类比,估算出BIM技术扩散过程中的创新系数p和模仿系数q,与此同时通过专家判断的方法,对市场最大潜力M以及BIM技术在我国建筑业企业中扩散最快的年份进行判断,然后进行参数p1、q1的估算。把两种方法下获得的M、p、q值代入Bass模型,利用MATLAB数学软件我们可以得到BIM技术在我国建筑业企业中的扩散趋势图,结果显示2012年到2022年这十年的时间将是BIM技术在我国建筑业企业中的黄金发展期。分别改变p、q的取值,我们发现增大模仿系数q的值可以明显加快BIM技术的扩散速度。因此,为了加快BIM技术在我国建筑业企业中的扩散,增大模仿系数q的值是很有必要的,这需要技术扩散主体和技术采纳者共同的努力。
[Abstract]:The popularization of BIM technology in the construction industry of our country is inevitable, that is, the whole information related to the construction project is expressed through the digitization in the computer. But at present, the application of this technology in our country is not wide enough. In order to predict the diffusion trend of BIM technology in the construction enterprises of our country, we can get the fastest diffusion time period. This provides a certain reference for construction enterprises to adopt BIM technology in their own enterprises. Secondly, we know the diffusion trend of BIM technology in the future. It can provide a scientific decision basis for government departments to standardize the management of BIM technology in the process of application, and how to formulate the technical standard of BIM. When to draw up the BIM technology development plan and so on. When using Bass model to predict the diffusion trend of new technology and lack sufficient data, The common methods of parameter estimation are analogy method and judgment method. This paper starts from the diffusion of BIM technology in construction enterprises and compares it with 19 kinds of information technology innovation diffusion. The innovation coefficient p and imitation coefficient Q in the process of BIM technology diffusion are estimated. At the same time, through the method of expert judgment, the maximum market potential M and the fastest year of BIM technology diffusion in Chinese construction enterprises are judged. Then the estimation of the parameter p1q1 is carried out. The Bass model is replaced with the MGQ value obtained by two methods. By using the MATLAB software, we can get the diffusion trend map of BIM technology in the construction enterprises of our country. The results show that the ten years from 2012 to 2022 will be the golden development period of BIM technology in Chinese construction enterprises. By changing the value of PQ, we find that increasing the value of imitation coefficient Q can obviously accelerate the diffusion speed of BIM technology. In order to speed up the diffusion of BIM technology in Chinese construction enterprises, it is necessary to increase the value of imitation coefficient Q, which requires the joint efforts of technology diffusion agents and technology adopters.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TU17;F426.92

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