基于灰色神经网络模型的重庆能源需求预测

发布时间：2018-03-16 13:14

本文选题：能源消费　切入点：规划　出处：《西南大学学报(自然科学版)》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：能源是支撑人类生存、经济发展和现代文明不可缺少的物质基础,随着社会经济的发展,对于能源的需求也在不断增长,因此准确地预测能源消费需求对于制定能源规划具有重要的指导意义.基于灰色神经网络预测模型,以重庆市历年能源统计数据为样本,根据能源消耗总量与能源消耗增长率、万元GDP能耗、万元财政收入能耗、居民收入能耗、能源消费弹性等因素之间的相关性,对重庆"十三五"期间能源的消费需求进行了预测,结果表明:运用灰色神经网络模型能够较为科学地预测重庆未来能源的实际需求趋势,可为政府相关部门的决策提供参考.
[Abstract]:Energy is the indispensable material foundation to support human survival, economic development and modern civilization. With the development of social economy, the demand for energy is also increasing. Therefore, accurate prediction of energy consumption demand has important guiding significance for the formulation of energy planning. Based on the grey neural network prediction model, taking the energy statistics of Chongqing as a sample, according to the total energy consumption and the growth rate of energy consumption, The correlation between the energy consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP, ten thousand yuan of financial revenue, the energy consumption of residents, the elasticity of energy consumption and so on. The energy consumption demand of Chongqing during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is forecasted. The results show that the grey neural network model can scientifically predict the trend of future energy demand in Chongqing, and can provide a reference for the decision-making of relevant government departments.
【作者单位】：重庆大学煤矿灾害动力学与控制国家重点实验室;重庆大学资源及环境科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51204218) 重庆市院士基金项目(CSTC2013jcyjys90001)
【分类号】：TP18;F426.2

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