DB模式下燃气轮机项目进度风险评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 22:18

本文选题：燃气轮机　切入点：进度风险　出处：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：人类对于能源的渴望和需求,伴随着社会文明的不断进步和经济发展的迅速增长而不断提高。在以往的能源格局中,常规火电汽轮机牢牢占据着统治地位,特别是发展中国家,80%以上为火电。而如今,众多发达及发展中国家新建的大型电站都开始使用联合循环机组,即使是中、小型的电厂也以热电并供作为主要的形式。燃气轮机凭借其极强的适配性和多样的发电模式开始占据新型电厂,成为当今世界发电市场不可或缺的一员。随着环保问题越来越得到重视,搭载燃气轮机的联合循环机组以其高效率、高机动性和高环保性,既能满足城市电网的基本负荷发电,又能作为调峰机组,备受市场的青睐。自上个世纪80年代起,在改革开放的旗帜下我国工业迅猛发展,电力需求及电网峰谷差也日趋增大,燃气轮机发电开始进入国内市场并引起重视。为有效缓解电力紧缺,同时又能增强电网的调峰能力,近年来一批具有国际先进水平的机组装备到了大型电站中。随着科学技术的快速发展、能源政策的调整、电力系统的改革,更高效、更洁净的能源将是未来的主旋律。燃气一蒸汽联合循环发电进入了发展的快车道,越来越受到国家有关方面的重视。燃气轮机从制造到安装调试到最后并网发电,其过程漫长而复杂,本课题主要采用了层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价法,对DB模式下燃气轮机项目进度风险的评价方法进行了研究。笔者以无锡市的燃气轮机项目为例,对该项目进行了分析,主要包含有无锡市燃气轮机项目概况,无锡市燃气轮机项目进度风险识别,应用层次分析法(AHP)确定的无锡市燃气轮机项目进度风险指标的权重,结合模糊综合评价法确定项目的进度风险性。
[Abstract]:The human thirst for energy and demand, along with the rapid growth of social civilization and the progress of economic development and constantly improve the pattern of energy. In the past, the conventional steam turbine firmly occupy the dominant position, especially in developing countries, more than 80% of power. Today, many large-scale power plants in developed and developing countries have started the new the use of combined cycle units, even in small power plants with heat and for gas turbine as the main form. By virtue of adaptation and diversity of its strong power generation began to occupy the new power plant, become an integral part of the world power market. With the environmental problems have been paid more and more attention, with combined cycle unit gas turbine with its high efficiency, high maneuverability and high environmental protection, can not only meet the basic load power grid of the city, but also as much market peaking units. Favor. Since the last century since 80s, in the reform and opening up under the banner of China's rapid industrial development, power demand and power grid peak valley difference is increasing, gas turbine power generation began to enter the domestic market and attention. In order to effectively alleviate the power shortage, but also enhance the peak load capacity of power network in recent years, a number of international the advanced level of the unit equipment to large power plants. With the rapid development of science and technology, energy policy adjustment, reform of the power system more efficient, more clean energy will be the main theme of the future. The gas steam combined cycle power into the fast track of development, more and more national attention. Gas turbine from manufacturing to installation and commissioning to the grid, the long and complex process, this paper mainly adopts the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the DB mode of gas turbine The project schedule risk evaluation method is studied. The author takes Wuxi city gas turbine project as an example, analysis for this project, mainly includes a survey of Wuxi city gas turbine project, Wuxi city gas turbine project risk identification, using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of the gas turbine project in Wuxi city the risk index, determine the schedule risk of project by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.4

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