基于熵权的制造业新型化程度国际比较与预测

发布时间：2018-04-02 00:04

本文选题：制造业　切入点：新型化　出处：《中国科技论坛》2016年11期

【摘要】：本文从经济、科技、能源三维角度,对2000—2012年中、美、日、德、韩、英六国制造业新型化程度进行综合评价,并在此基础上运用GM(1,1)模型预测并比较分析了到2020年六国的制造业新型化发展趋势。研究结果表明:中国制造业新型化程度将进一步提升,逐渐缩小与美国的差距,或在2016年超越美国,但经济、科技、能源三方面发展水平差异较大。其中,经济创造是制造业发展的优势所在,未来仍将保持高速上升态势;科技创新能力也有较大幅度提升,预计到2020年与美国水平相当;能源集约是制造业新型化发展的短板,位于六国底端,与其他五国差距甚大。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of economy, science and technology and energy, this paper makes a comprehensive evaluation on the degree of new-type manufacturing industry in the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea and Britain from 2000 to 2012.On the basis of this model, the author forecasts and compares the development trend of manufacturing industry in six countries by 2020.The results show that the degree of new-type manufacturing industry in China will be further improved, the gap between China and the United States will be narrowed gradually, or will surpass the United States in 2016, but the development level of economy, science and technology and energy will be quite different.Among them, economic creation is the advantage of manufacturing development and will continue to rise at a high speed in the future; the ability of scientific and technological innovation is also greatly improved, and it is expected to be comparable to the level of the United States by 2020. Energy intensity is a short board for the new-type development of the manufacturing industry.Located at the bottom of the six countries, and the other five countries are very different.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学制造业发展研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制下我国制造业转型升级研究”(71173116) 教育部哲学社会科学发展报告项目“中国制造业发展研究报告”(13JBG004)
【分类号】：F414

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