劳动力演化如何影响中国工业发展:转移还是转型

发布时间：2018-04-04 00:21

  本文选题：产业转移　切入点：产业转型　出处：《中国工业经济》2016年09期

【摘要】：劳动力演化对工业发展的影响存在转移和转型的双重效应。本文通过对劳动力区位熵的引力系数修正,测度了产业转移和产业转型的相对净流量。基于2000—2014年中国29个省份按技术水平划分的五类工业产业面板数据,实证研究了劳动力数量、劳动力技能水平以及劳动力技能配置效率对工业产业转移和转型的影响。结果表明,中国工业发展顺应劳动力演化的趋势明显。从数量角度看,人口红利衰减会加速中国工业产业的空间转移,并进一步"倒逼"低技术产业向高技术产业转型;从技能角度看,劳动力技能的提高有利于吸引高技术产业转移和推动低技术产业向中高端转型升级;从技能配置效率看,其对产业转移和转型的作用趋势相反,对产业转移而言,技能配置效率的提高容易形成对产业的"挤出",对产业转型而言,则会形成对产业转型升级的促进作用。在亟待通过产业转移和转型从而拓展发展空间的战略背景下,除了要注重引导劳动力从沿海向内陆沿边地区适度"回流"和着力促进劳动力技能提升外,必须重视劳动力技能与产业技术的匹配,真正推动"人口红利"向"人才红利"转型。这对于中国工业产业的发展具有极为重要的战略意义。
[Abstract]:The influence of labor force evolution on industrial development has the dual effect of transfer and transformation.This paper measures the relative net flow of industrial transfer and industrial transformation by modifying the gravitational coefficient of labor force location entropy.Based on five types of industrial panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014, this paper empirically studies the effects of labor force quantity, labor skill level and labor skill allocation efficiency on industrial industry transfer and transformation.The results show that China's industrial development conforms to the trend of labor evolution.From a quantitative point of view, the decline of the demographic dividend will accelerate the spatial transfer of China's industrial industries and further "reverse" the transition of low-tech industries to high-technology industries; from a skills perspective,The improvement of labor skills is conducive to attracting the transfer of high-tech industries and promoting the transformation and upgrading of low-technology industries to the middle and high end; from the perspective of the efficiency of skill allocation, the effect of the skills allocation on industrial transfer and transformation is opposite, and on industrial transfer.The enhancement of skill allocation efficiency is easy to form "extrusion" to industry, and to industry transformation, it will promote industrial transformation and upgrading.Under the strategic background of developing space through industry transfer and transformation, we should not only focus on guiding the labor force from the coastal to the inland border areas, but also focus on promoting the upgrading of labor skills.We must pay attention to the matching of labor skills and industrial technology, and really promote the transition from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend".This is of great strategic significance to the development of China's industrial industry.
【作者单位】： 南京审计大学政府审计学院;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球经济深度调整背景下我国外贸增速变化机理及对策研究”(批准号16AJY018);国家社会科学基金一般项目“要素成本上升、产业断档与我国新型比较优势培育研究”(批准号15BJY119) 江苏省“青蓝工程”中青年学术带头人培养项目“价值链演进新趋势与我国产业发展”(批准号16QL006)
【分类号】：F249.2;F424
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本文编号：1707549