2004至2013年中国西部地区建筑业可持续发展综合评价及预测

发布时间：2018-04-11 03:20

本文选题：中国 + 西部省域　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长,建筑行业作为重要的生产部门,也迎来了发展的好时机。随着西部大开发战略的深入实施,西部地区建筑业发展步伐也在不断加快,然而能源消耗与环境污染问题日渐突出,同时生产技术水平较为低下。如何转变西部地区建筑业的发展模式,实现建筑业可持续发展是一个具有重要研究意义的问题。影响建筑业可持续发展的因素众多,本文基于建筑业可持续发展的内涵,分别从经济、社会、资源、环境、技术这五大方面进行具体分析。依据指标体系建立的原则和方法,利用解释结构模型构建中国西部地区建筑业可持续发展指标体系,确定评价所需的8项输入与输出指标。再根据中国统计年鉴上的相关指标数据,选取数据包络分析法,对2004至2013年期间,中国西部地区12个省域的建筑业可持续发展状况进行有效性计算,得出每个省域的相对可持续发展效率及综合排名。最后根据计算结果,分析无法实现有效发展的原因并进行非有效单元的改进,提出相应的对策建议,为以后实现建筑业可持续发展指明了方向。最后以中国西部地区整体建筑业为研究对象,先根据各组指标数据的趋势特点,分别利用指数平滑法和灰色预测模型进行数据预测,再采用数据包络模型,对未来西部地区整体建筑业的可持续发展水平计算分析。得出在预测的年份里,西部地区整体建筑业并没有全部实现可持续发展,具有较大的进步空间。本文从可持续发展的角度出发,综合考虑各方面影响因素,基于统计数据,对2004至2013年期间中国西部地区建筑业可持续发展情况进行全面评价,并通过指标数据预测未来中国西部地区整体建筑业可持续发展水平,分析结果客观准确,对未来的预测较为合理。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has grown rapidly, construction industry as an important production sector, also ushered in a good opportunity for development.With the implementation of the western development strategy, the development of the construction industry in the western region is also accelerating. However, the problems of energy consumption and environmental pollution are becoming more and more prominent, and the level of production technology is relatively low.How to change the development mode of the construction industry in western China and realize the sustainable development of the construction industry is of great significance.There are many factors that affect the sustainable development of construction industry. Based on the connotation of sustainable development of construction industry, this paper makes a concrete analysis from five aspects: economy, society, resources, environment and technology.According to the principles and methods of establishing the index system, the index system of sustainable development of the construction industry in western China was constructed by using the explanatory structure model, and the 8 input and output indexes needed for evaluation were determined.Then according to the relevant index data of China Statistical Yearbook, selecting the data envelopment analysis method, this paper calculates the validity of the sustainable development of construction industry in 12 provinces of western China from 2004 to 2013.The relative sustainable development efficiency and comprehensive ranking of each province are obtained.Finally, according to the results of calculation, the paper analyzes the reasons why the effective development can not be realized and improves the non-effective units, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which points out the direction of realizing the sustainable development of the construction industry in the future.Finally, taking the whole construction industry in western China as the research object, according to the trend characteristics of each group of index data, the index smoothing method and the grey forecasting model are used to predict the data, and then the data envelope model is adopted.This paper calculates and analyzes the sustainable development level of the whole construction industry in the western region in the future.It is concluded that in the predicted year, the whole construction industry in the western region has not fully realized sustainable development and has great room for progress.From the perspective of sustainable development, this paper comprehensively evaluates the sustainable development of the construction industry in western China from 2004 to 2013, considering all factors affecting it comprehensively and based on the statistical data.The sustainable development level of the whole construction industry in the west of China is predicted by the index data. The result of the analysis is objective and accurate, and the prediction of the future is more reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.92

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