金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费——基于ARDL模型的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 03:05

本文选题：金融发展 + 对外贸易　；参考：《湖南大学学报(社会科学版)》2016年04期

【摘要】：利用1980-2013年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对我国金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费三者间的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明:金融发展对能源消费具有长期显著的负向效应,能源消费对金融发展的长短期影响显著为负;金融发展对对外贸易的长短期弹性系数是3.1068和0.40871,分别通过1%和10%的显著性检验,对外贸易对金融发展的显著影响只存在于短期关系中;能源消费对对外贸易具有长期显著的促进作用,节能计划的实施,会降低贸易发展水平。基于此,我国应充分发挥金融在经济系统中的作用,在促进对外贸易发展的同时减少能源消费,实现经济社会的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the sample data from 1980 to 2013, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between China's financial development, foreign trade and energy consumption by using the autoregressive distribution lag model (ARDL).The results show that financial development has a significant negative effect on energy consumption in the long run, and energy consumption has a negative impact on financial development in the long and short term.The short- and long-term elastic coefficients of financial development to foreign trade are 3.1068 and 0.40871, respectively, and the significant influence of foreign trade on financial development is only in the short-term relationship through the significant test of 1% and 10%, respectively.Energy consumption plays a significant role in promoting foreign trade for a long time. The implementation of energy conservation plan will reduce the level of trade development.Based on this, China should give full play to the role of finance in the economic system, promote the development of foreign trade while reducing energy consumption, to achieve sustainable economic and social development.
【作者单位】：湖南大学金融与统计学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJL007) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-09-0329) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20100161110030) 湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(12JJ5038)
【分类号】：F832;F752;F426.2

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