智能电网环境下配电网规划与运营风险型决策模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 07:43

本文选题：配电网规划 + 配电网运营　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着能源危机和全球变暖问题的加重,世界能源正在朝着清洁化、低碳化、高效化的趋势发展,配电网也正在向着具有支持大规模清洁能源的接入、实现双向互动的供电、较强供电可靠性等特色智能电网的方向建设。然而,智能电网建设的开展,必然会对配电网规划结构和市场运营结构产生巨大的影响。因此,本文在考虑了智能电网环境下的各类影响因素,结合多目标优化与多准则决策理论对配电网规划与运营进行研究是一个具有意义的课题,其该课题的主要内容及成果体现在以下三个方面：(1)针对智能电网环境下配电网规划决策的问题,考虑到分布式电源和电动汽车接入对配电网规划的影响,通过构建定性与定量相结合混合型指标体系,同时结合专家对定性指标采用语言评价值的模糊性与决策者面对收益和损失时不同的风险态度,提出了一种基于累积前景理论与云模型的群决策方法。(2)针对智能电网环境下配电网多市场购电的多目标决策问题,本文在对配电网面临多购电市场、购电流程进行简介的基础上,构建了不同购电方案下配电网收益、风险和可靠性这三个指标的求解方法,并结合和声搜索算法求最优的过程与VIKOR方法依据“最大化群体效益、最小化个体遗憾”生成折衷解的优势,提出一种基于VIKOR与和声搜索算法的多目标最优决策方法,该方法既弥补了由多目标直接加权转化为单目标信息可能产生丢失的劣势,又解决了决策方案集中初始方案的设定和新方案生成的难题。(3)针对智能电网环境下配电网售电问题,本文以电力需求侧管理——分时电价为求解配电网经济性、供电质量和负荷特性这三个指标值的依据,提出了一种基于突变理论的配电网分时电价售电的风险型多准则决策方法,这减少了决策过程中决策者主观影响因素和人为因素,使得决策更加客观化和实际化。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the energy crisis and global warming, the world energy is developing towards cleanliness, low carbonization and high efficiency. The distribution network is also moving towards the power supply with the support of large-scale clean energy access and two-way interactive power supply.Strong power supply reliability and other characteristics of smart grid construction.However, the development of smart grid construction will inevitably have a great impact on the distribution network planning structure and market operation structure.Therefore, in this paper, considering all kinds of influence factors in smart grid environment, combining multi-objective optimization and multi-criteria decision theory to study distribution network planning and operation is a meaningful topic.The main contents and achievements of this project are as follows: 1) aiming at the problem of distribution network planning decision under the environment of smart grid, considering the influence of distributed generation and electric vehicle connection on distribution network planning,By constructing a mixed index system of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and combining the fuzziness of linguistic evaluation of qualitative indicators and the different risk attitudes of decision makers in the face of gains and losses,In this paper, a group decision method based on cumulative foreground theory and cloud model is proposed to solve the multi-objective decision-making problem of multi-market power purchase in smart grid environment. In this paper, the distribution network is faced with multi-purchase market.On the basis of brief introduction of power purchase flow, this paper constructs a method to solve the three indexes of distribution network income, risk and reliability under different power purchase schemes, and combines the harmony search algorithm to find the optimal process and the VIKOR method according to "maximize group benefit".This paper proposes a multi-objective optimal decision method based on VIKOR and harmonic search algorithm, which not only makes up for the disadvantage of losing information from multi-objective directly weighted to single-objective information, but also makes up for the advantages of tradeoff solution generated by minimizing individual regret.In order to solve the problem of distribution network sale under the environment of smart grid, the power demand side management (DSM) -time-sharing price is used to solve the economic problem of distribution network.On the basis of the three index values of power supply quality and load characteristic, this paper presents a risk-type multi-criteria decision method based on catastrophe theory, which reduces the subjective and human factors of decision makers in the decision-making process.Make the decision more objective and practical.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.61

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