基于KLEMS模型的能源投入结构效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 12:28

本文选题：能源投入 + 结构效应　；参考：《产经评论》2016年02期

【摘要】：近年来,中国工业部门出现难以化解的能源与环境矛盾,能源投入结构改革势在必行。首先,基于供给方视角提出并论证了能源投入作为生产要素对工业结构的影响机理。具体而言,在中国能源投入增长率大于劳动力增长率的背景下,工业部门能源投入份额的差异会引发产出增长率的差异,进而产生结构变动效应。然后,基于RAS方法及结构离差方法界定了供给角度下中国工业结构主体变动路径,并发现变动的主要驱动因素是技术的变化;基于KLEMS模型及思想界定了工业部门能源投入状态,分两个时期研究了22个工业部门能源投入状态及变动情况。最后依据影响机理,将两方面研究结果结合在一起分别从动态、静态两个角度考察能源投入对中国工业结构的影响,结果发现能源投入促进了4个工业部门结构变动,对4个工业部门结构变动具有一般性影响,并对14个工业部门结构变动产生扰动性影响。在分析产生扰动性影响原因的基础上,提出建立能源价格市场机制、消除能源效率差异、优化能源投入结构等三大应对措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there are insoluble conflicts between energy and environment in China's industrial sector, so it is imperative to reform the structure of energy input. Firstly, the mechanism of energy input as a factor of production on industrial structure is proposed and demonstrated from the perspective of supply side. Specifically, under the background that the growth rate of energy input in China is larger than that of labor force, the difference of energy input share in industrial sector will lead to the difference of output growth rate, and then produce structural change effect. Then, based on the RAS method and the structural deviation method, this paper defines the main changing path of the industrial structure in China under the supply angle, and finds that the main driving factor of the change is the change of technology, and based on the KLEMS model and the thought circle, the energy input state of the industrial sector is determined. The energy input status and changes in 22 industrial sectors were studied in two periods. Finally, according to the influence mechanism, we combine the two aspects of research results from the dynamic and static perspectives to investigate the impact of energy input on China's industrial structure. The results show that energy investment promotes the structural changes of four industrial sectors. It has a general effect on the structural changes in 4 industrial sectors and a disturbing effect on the structural changes in 14 industrial sectors. On the basis of analyzing the causes of disturbance, the paper puts forward three countermeasures, such as establishing the market mechanism of energy price, eliminating the difference of energy efficiency and optimizing the structure of energy input.
【作者单位】：黑龙江科技大学经济学院;中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;
【分类号】：F426.2

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