长江经济带工业碳排放与驱动因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 19:45

本文选题：长江经济带 + 工业碳排放　；参考：《江西社会科学》2016年08期

【摘要】：基于2000—2012年相关数据,综合运用Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI模型,研究长江经济带工业经济增长及驱动因素对碳排放的影响可得出结论:一是长江经济带工业碳排放量增速趋缓,碳排放强度持续下降,到2020年碳排放强度相比2005年下降40%~45%的目标有望提前实现。二是长江经济带工业经济增长与碳排放关系经历了脱钩到挂钩再到脱钩的过程,对能源的依赖由弱到强再到弱,工业经济增长方式由集约到粗放再到集约。三是劳动生产率主要是驱动工业碳排放增加,其次是劳动力总数因素;能源强度是抑制工业碳排放增长主要因素,劳动生产率的驱动作用大于能源强度下降的抑制作用;能源结构、碳排放系数、劳动力地域结构对工业碳排放先抑制后促进,但作用有限。
[Abstract]:Based on the relevant data from 2000 to 2012, using the Tapio decoupling model and LMDI model, the paper studies the effects of industrial economic growth and driving factors on carbon emissions in the Yangtze Economic Belt. The conclusions are as follows: first, the growth rate of industrial carbon emissions in the Yangtze Economic Zone has slowed down. The target of reducing carbon intensity by 40% or 45% by 2020 compared with 2005 is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule. Second, the relationship between industrial economic growth and carbon emission in the Yangtze economic belt has experienced the process of decoupling from hook to decoupling, and the dependence on energy has changed from weak to strong to weak, and the mode of industrial economic growth has changed from intensive to extensive and then to intensive. Third, labor productivity mainly drives the increase of industrial carbon emissions, followed by the total labor force, the energy intensity is the main factor to restrain the growth of industrial carbon emissions, and the driving effect of labor productivity is greater than that of the decrease of energy intensity. Energy structure, carbon emission coefficient and regional structure of labor force restrain industrial carbon emission first and then promote it, but the effect is limited.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;东华理工大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中部地区低碳产业发展与两型社会建设研究”(11JJD790031) 江西省高校人文项目“长江经济带城镇化质量评价与提升路径研究”(JJ1502) 江西省社科规划项目“‘一带一路’内陆节点城市低碳经济发展比较研究”(15YJ30)
【分类号】：X22;F427

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