中国履行斯德哥尔摩公约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响

发布时间：2018-07-10 03:46

本文选题：硫丹 + 中国履约　；参考：《环境科学研究》2016年08期

【摘要】：通过构建化学品风险管理SEA(社会经济影响分析)方法学,结合中国硫丹生产、使用及替代技术状况的调研,对中国履约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响进行了分析.结果表明:中国5 a淘汰情景下的总成本为5 007.2×10~4元,其中产业经济成本为4 852.2×10~4元,管理成本为155.0×10~4元,沉没成本约为651.0×10~4元;10 a淘汰情景下的总成本为2 748.5×10~4元,其中产业经济成本为2 507.6×10~4元,管理成本为240.9×10~4元,而沉没成本约为651.0×10~4元.硫丹淘汰对现有硫丹原药生产企业会产生一定的经济及化工生产链影响,但总体经济影响不大.对履约淘汰硫丹的主要利益攸关方、就业影响和消费者福利等因素的分析表明,除对硫丹长期集中使用的棉花种植者构成一定的短期影响外,中国履约淘汰硫丹产生的社会影响较小.其中,5 a淘汰情景比10 a淘汰情景可减少约2 000 t硫丹环境排放量,具有更显著的环境和健康效益.因而,建议中国采用5 a淘汰情景履约淘汰硫丹,研究成果可为国家硫丹履约行动计划的制订和实施提供参考.
[Abstract]:By constructing a chemical risk management sea (Socio-Economic impact Analysis) methodology combined with the investigation of the production, use and substitution of endosulfan in China, the socio-economic impact of China's compliance and elimination of endosulfan was analyzed. The results show that the total cost of China is 5 007.2 脳 10 ~ (4) Yuan, including 4 852.2 脳 10 ~ (4) Yuan for industrial economy, 155.0 脳 10 ~ (4) yuan for management, and 2 748.5 脳 10 ~ (4) yuan for sunk cost. The industrial economic cost is 2 507.6 脳 10 ~ (4) yuan, the management cost is 240.9 脳 10 ~ (4) yuan, and the sunk cost is about 651.0 脳 10 ~ (4) yuan. The elimination of endosulfan will have a certain economic and chemical production chain impact on the existing endosulfan raw drug production enterprises, but the overall economic impact is not significant. An analysis of key stakeholders in compliance with the phase-out of endosulfan, employment impacts and consumer welfare showed that, in addition to having a short-term impact on cotton growers who had been concentrated on endosulfan for a long time, China's compliance with the elimination of endosulfan has a relatively small social impact. The environmental emission of endosulfan could be reduced by about 2 000 t in 5 year elimination scenario than in 10 year elimination scenario, which had more significant environmental and health benefits. Therefore, it is suggested that China should adopt a 5-year phase-out scenario to phase out endosulfan, and the research results can provide a reference for the formulation and implementation of the national endosulfan compliance action plan.
【作者单位】：北京大学环境科学与工程学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室;
【基金】：全球环境基金履行斯德哥尔摩公约国家实施计划更新项目
【分类号】：F426.7;X327

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