中国30个省域建筑业—经济—资源环境协调发展评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-22 21:06

【摘要】：在全球经济连年缓慢增长的大背景下,中国经济增长实现稳中有增。这是由众多因素共同决定的,其中,建筑业的作用不可小觑。建筑业历来是资源环境、城市化、就业、经济增长等各种社会经济问题的焦点,尤其与经济发展、资源环境息息相关。近年来,建筑业与经济发展之间的关系引起广泛关注,同时建筑业对资源和环境的高消耗亦日益受到重视。因此,正确处理省域建筑业与经济、资源环境间的平衡关系,促进建筑业、经济增长和资源环境间的协调发展,成为当前需要着力研究和解决的重要课题之一。本文以中国30个省域建筑业-经济-资源环境系统作为研究对象,同时为避免单一年份的特殊性,把握近年来建筑业-经济-资源环境的动态演变规律,选取了2005-2013年最近9年的时间跨度进行分析。首先,在对国内外关于建筑业与经济、资源环境相互作用关系的研究成果进行系统梳理及评述的基础上,探讨了建筑业与经济、资源环境的协调作用机理,建立评价指标体系,采用变异系数法、线性加权和法等定量方法,系统地计算了建筑业综合发展水平、经济综合发展水平、资源环境综合质量水平,在此基础上结合协调发展度模型,测度了各省域建筑业-经济-资源环境的协调发展度。其次,对测度结果进行分析评价。首先对中国整体、六个区域、30个省域2005-2013年的建筑业综合发展水平、经济综合发展水平、资源环境综合质量水平及建筑业-经济-资源环境的协调发展度从时间序列进行分析,探究其变化态势,进而从空间上分析30个省域建筑业综合发展水平、经济综合发展水平、资源环境综合质量水平及三者协调发展度的空间分布特征,以期为建筑业-经济-资源环境系统的健康可持续发展决策提供参考和借鉴。最后,采用灰色预测模型,以2005-2013年中国30个省域建筑业-经济-资源环境协调发展度测度结果作为基础数据,运用GM(1,1)模型,对其协调发展度进行了未来5年的预测,并从中国整体、六大区域、30个省域三个层面对预测结果进行了分析,多方位探究了我国建筑业-经济-资源环境协调发展度的发展趋势。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the slow growth of the global economy, China's economic growth has increased. This is determined by many factors, among which, the role of the construction industry can not be underestimated. Construction industry has always been the focus of resources and environment, urbanization, employment, economic growth and other social and economic issues, especially closely related to economic development, resources and environment. In recent years, the relationship between construction industry and economic development has attracted wide attention, and the high consumption of resources and environment has been paid more and more attention to. Therefore, it is one of the most important issues that need to be studied and solved that how to correctly deal with the balance relationship between the construction industry and economy, resources and environment, and to promote the harmonious development of construction industry, economic growth and resources and environment. In order to avoid the particularity of a single year, the dynamic evolution law of construction industry, economy and resource environment in 30 provinces of China is studied in this paper, in order to avoid the particularity of a single year, the dynamic evolution of the construction industry, economy and resources environment in recent years is grasped. The time span of the last 9 years from 2005 to 2013 is analyzed. First of all, on the basis of systematically combing and commenting on the research results of the interaction between construction industry and economy, resources and environment at home and abroad, this paper probes into the coordination mechanism of construction industry and economy, resources and environment, and establishes the evaluation index system. By using quantitative methods such as coefficient of variation method and linear weighted sum method, the comprehensive development level of construction industry, the level of comprehensive economic development and the comprehensive quality level of resources and environment are calculated systematically, on the basis of which the coordinated development degree model is combined. The degree of coordinated development of construction industry, economy and resource environment in each province is measured. Secondly, the measurement results are analyzed and evaluated. Firstly, the comprehensive development level of construction industry, the level of comprehensive economic development, the level of comprehensive quality of resources and environment and the degree of coordinated development of construction industry, economy and resource environment in the whole, six regions and 30 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013 are analyzed from the time series. This paper probes into its changing situation, and then analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of the comprehensive development level of the construction industry in 30 provinces, the comprehensive development level of the economy, the comprehensive quality level of the resources and the environment and the degree of coordinated development among the three provinces from a spatial perspective. In order to provide reference and reference for the healthy and sustainable development of the construction industry-economy-resources-environment system. Finally, based on the results of the coordinated development of construction industry, economy, resources and environment in 30 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013, the grey forecasting model is used to forecast the degree of coordinated development in the next five years by using GM (1t1) model. The forecast results are analyzed from the whole of China, six regions and 30 provinces, and the development trend of the coordinated development of construction industry, economy and resources environment in China is explored.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.92;F124

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