欧佩克新减产协议的效力及影响
发布时间：2018-08-27 11:09
【摘要】：美国页岩革命极大地改变了世界能源格局,页岩油产量快速增长成为2014年6月以来油价断崖式下跌的直接推动力量。以沙特为首的欧佩克面对形势骤变,放弃传统的限产保价策略,俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国也加入到市场份额战争,竞相大幅增产,导致油价持续走低。美国页岩油的韧性远超欧佩克预期,活跃钻机数量下降的同时适应市场的能力不断增强,盈亏平衡油价不断创历史新低,形成了以沙特为首的欧佩克、以俄罗斯为首的非欧佩克传统产油国和美国三足鼎立,互相合作、竞争和博弈的新原油市场格局。在量与价的平衡中,欧佩克国家不得不重回谈判桌。本文结合减产协议的背景,分析了减产协议的动因、分配原则、可能的执行结果,预判此次协议的实际净减产规模在70万~150万桶/日,2017年布伦特均价将比2016年提高5~10美元/桶。
[Abstract]:The U.S. shale revolution has dramatically changed the world's energy landscape, with rapid growth in shale oil production as a direct driver of the precipitous drop in oil prices since June 2014. In the face of sudden changes in the situation, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, abandoned the traditional strategy of limiting production and keeping prices. Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers also joined the market share war, competing to increase production by a large margin, leading to a continued decline in oil prices. The toughness of US shale oil far exceeds OPEC's expectation that while the number of active drilling rigs is declining and the ability to adapt to the market is constantly increasing, the break-even oil prices are constantly setting new lows, and OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, has formed. Russia led by the traditional oil producers of non-OPEC and the United States tripod, mutual cooperation, competition and game of the new crude oil market pattern. In the balance between volume and price, OPEC countries have to return to the negotiating table. Based on the background of the reduction agreement, this paper analyzes the motivation, distribution principle and possible implementation result of the reduction agreement, predicts that the actual net reduction in this agreement is between 700000 and 1.5 million b / d, and that the average Brent price in 2017 will be $510 / b higher than that in 2016.
【作者单位】： 中国石油天然气集团政策研究室;迪拜石油公司;
【分类号】：F416.22
，
本文编号：2207097
[Abstract]:The U.S. shale revolution has dramatically changed the world's energy landscape, with rapid growth in shale oil production as a direct driver of the precipitous drop in oil prices since June 2014. In the face of sudden changes in the situation, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, abandoned the traditional strategy of limiting production and keeping prices. Russia and other non-OPEC oil producers also joined the market share war, competing to increase production by a large margin, leading to a continued decline in oil prices. The toughness of US shale oil far exceeds OPEC's expectation that while the number of active drilling rigs is declining and the ability to adapt to the market is constantly increasing, the break-even oil prices are constantly setting new lows, and OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, has formed. Russia led by the traditional oil producers of non-OPEC and the United States tripod, mutual cooperation, competition and game of the new crude oil market pattern. In the balance between volume and price, OPEC countries have to return to the negotiating table. Based on the background of the reduction agreement, this paper analyzes the motivation, distribution principle and possible implementation result of the reduction agreement, predicts that the actual net reduction in this agreement is between 700000 and 1.5 million b / d, and that the average Brent price in 2017 will be $510 / b higher than that in 2016.
【作者单位】： 中国石油天然气集团政策研究室;迪拜石油公司;
【分类号】：F416.22
，
本文编号：2207097
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