煤炭供应链牛鞭效应量化研究
发布时间：2018-09-03 08:07
【摘要】：考虑一个煤炭勘探开采企业和一个煤炭销售运输企业组成的两级煤炭供应链,建立了煤炭市场需求服从SARMA时间序列过程,煤炭销售运输企业采用MA技术预测市场需求和Orderup-to库存策略的煤炭供应链牛鞭效应量化模型,并对该模型的影响因素进行理论分析和算例验证。研究表明:0ρ1,0θ1时,煤炭供应链必会产生牛鞭效应;L≤k≤S时,牛鞭效应值较小;季节性自回归系数、季节性移动平均系数、季节性循环周期、订货提前期和历史数据个数5个参数对煤炭供应链牛鞭效应有直接影响。具体而言,季节性循环周期的增大有助于减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应,季节性自回归系数的增大并不总是能减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应,而季节性移动平均系数和订货提前期的减少有助于减少煤炭供应链牛鞭效应。
[Abstract]:Considering a two-level coal supply chain composed of a coal exploration and mining enterprise and a coal sales and transportation enterprise, the process of coal market demand from SARMA time series is established. The bullwhip effect quantitative model of coal supply chain using MA technology to predict market demand and Orderup-to inventory strategy is used in coal sales and transportation enterprises. The influencing factors of this model are theoretically analyzed and verified by an example. The results show that when the bullwhip effect is L 鈮，
本文编号：2219396
[Abstract]:Considering a two-level coal supply chain composed of a coal exploration and mining enterprise and a coal sales and transportation enterprise, the process of coal market demand from SARMA time series is established. The bullwhip effect quantitative model of coal supply chain using MA technology to predict market demand and Orderup-to inventory strategy is used in coal sales and transportation enterprises. The influencing factors of this model are theoretically analyzed and verified by an example. The results show that when the bullwhip effect is L 鈮，
本文编号：2219396
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