中国木质林产品的出口二元边际及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-10-10 11:29

【摘要】：利用联合国商品贸易数据库HS六分位编码,对1996~2014年间中国木质林产品出口的二元边际情况进行分析的结果表明:中国对美国、日本、中国香港、英国等主要贸易伙伴的出口增长来自于集约边际和扩展边际的共同作用。对二元边际的相关影响因素进行实证分析的结果表明:目的地市场规模对集约边际呈正相关关系,但对扩展边际呈现负相关关系;可变贸易成本对二元边际呈现负相关关系;多边阻力对二元边际呈现正相关关系;劳动生产率对二元边际呈现正相关关系;经济危机对集约边际几乎不构成影响,但对扩展边际有明显冲击。基于此,提出调整出口市场结构,发挥扩展边际作用;加快自由贸易进程,逐步减少贸易阻力;加大科研资本投入,提升劳动生产效率等建议。
[Abstract]:By using the United Nations Commodity Trade Database (HS) six-quartile coding, this paper analyzes the binary marginal situation of China's exports of woody forest products from 1996 to 2014. The results show that: China to the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, China, The export growth of major trading partners such as Britain comes from the combination of intensive and expanded margins. The results of empirical analysis on the influencing factors of duality marginal show that the scale of destination market has a positive correlation with the intensive marginal, but a negative correlation to the extended marginal, variable trade cost to the dualistic marginal, a negative correlation to the dualistic marginal, and a negative correlation between the scale of the destination market and the intensive marginal. Multilateral resistance has a positive correlation with the dual marginal; labor productivity has a positive correlation with the dual marginal; the economic crisis has almost no effect on the intensive marginal, but has a significant impact on the extended marginal. Based on this, some suggestions are put forward, such as adjusting the structure of export market, bringing into play the marginal function of expansion, speeding up the process of free trade, gradually reducing the trade resistance, increasing the investment of scientific research capital and improving the efficiency of labor production, etc.
【作者单位】：北京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：北京林业大学青年教师科学研究中长期项目(2015ZCQ-JG-02)
【分类号】：F752.62;F426.88

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