基于行业视角的中国石油消费因素分解分析

发布时间：2018-10-10 18:25

【摘要】：为提高我国能源安全和减少石油对外依存,充分分解分析历史影响石油消费增加的潜在性因素是势在必行的。本文采用分解技术方法分析了1980~2012年4方面因素对全国及六大行业石油消费的影响。研究表明,经济产出是拉动全国及各行业石油消费增长的主要贡献因素;而石油消费抑制作用主要来源于能源消费强度。行业间以工业和交通业的产出效益和能源强度效应最为显著。能源结构对全国、工业及其他行业(非物质生产行业)的石油消费起着抑制作用,而对农业、建筑业、交通和商业起着拉动作用。化石能源替代对全国石油消费起着拉动作用,这归因于工业的化石能源替代正效应要强于其他四大行业负效应。未来我国对石油消费的控制主要途径是降低经济产出效应,其根本在于在经济发展过程中减少经济对能源的依赖,通过政策扶持改善能源结构,以及通过技术改进提高能源效率。
[Abstract]:In order to improve China's energy security and reduce the dependence of oil on foreign countries, it is imperative to fully analyze the potential factors that affect the increase of oil consumption. In this paper, the influence of four factors on petroleum consumption in China and six major industries is analyzed by means of decomposition technique. The research shows that economic output is the main contributing factor to the increase of petroleum consumption in China and various industries, and the inhibition of oil consumption mainly comes from the intensity of energy consumption. The output benefit and energy intensity effect of industry and transportation are the most significant among industries. The energy structure stifles oil consumption across the country, industry and other industries (nonmaterial production), while driving agriculture, construction, transportation, and commerce. The substitution of fossil energy plays an important role in national petroleum consumption, which is attributed to the fact that the positive effect of fossil energy substitution in industry is stronger than the negative effect in the other four industries. In the future, the main way to control oil consumption in China is to reduce the economic output effect, which lies in reducing the economic dependence on energy in the process of economic development, and improving the energy structure through policy support. And improving energy efficiency through technological improvements.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院;中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心;
【基金】：中央地质勘查基金项目“国外重要矿产对中国可供性评估”资助(2002331100074)
【分类号】：F426.22

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