油价新常态下国际石油公司的应对之策

发布时间：2018-11-10 09:24

【摘要】：本轮油价低迷态势或成为新常态,美国原油交易基金(ETF-USO)走势显示当前油价正处于低位震荡时期,持续时间会比想象的更久。油价回升需要挤出过剩产能、挤出低回报项目、挤出过剩库存和挤出过剩资金等"四个挤出"效应。油价新常态下,国际石油公司越发重视股价、现金流、盈利、股息及资产负债等业绩指标,纷纷出台各种应对之策:一是采取增产(稳产)提效、出售资产/兼并购、减少资本性支出、资产重组、减少运营成本、裁员等相对短期的被动应对措施,并与资源国等利益相关方协商调整相关财税政策及条款;二是推进积极的战略调整和资产结构优化组合等主动应对举措;三是着眼于能源长远发展,关注碳排放等外部成本内部化、合规成本、消费者多重要求以及能源替代竞争等可持续发展方向。
[Abstract]:The current downturn in oil prices is likely to become the new normal, with the U.S. crude oil trading fund (ETF-USO) showing that oil prices are in a period of low volatility that will last longer than thought. A rebound in oil prices requires squeezing out excess capacity, crowding out low-return items, squeezing out excess inventories and squeezing out excess funds. Under the new normal oil price, international oil companies pay more and more attention to the performance indicators such as stock price, cash flow, profits, dividends and assets and liabilities, and one after another have introduced various countermeasures: first, to increase production (steady production) efficiency, sell assets / both mergers and acquisitions. Reduce capital expenditure, asset restructuring, reduce operating costs, layoffs and other relatively short-term passive response measures, and consult with resource countries and other stakeholders to adjust the relevant fiscal policies and terms; The second is to promote active strategic adjustment and asset structure optimization and other active response measures; Third, focus on the long-term development of energy, focus on the internalization of external costs, such as carbon emissions, compliance costs, consumer demands and alternative energy competition and other sustainable development direction.
【作者单位】：中国石油集团政策研究室;中国地质大学(北京);中国石油技术开发公司;对外经济贸易大学;
【分类号】：F416.22

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