基于秩和检验的中美采购经理人指数对比分析

发布时间：2018-12-30 17:20

【摘要】：制造业在一国经济发展中占有很重要的位置,制造业采购经理人指数是反映制造业水平高低的指标,研究制造业采购经理人指数对促进国家经济发展而言至关重要。有数据显示制造业产出在美国经济总量占有很大的比重,中国发布这一指数的时间较晚,该方面的研究也尚不成熟。因此,本文从调查范围、计算方法和对整体经济趋势的影响这三个方面对中美制造业采购经理人指数进行了对比分析,研究发现:中美在选取PMI各指标的调查范围上有所差异,中国收集的样本数据更为广泛;在计算方法上两国虽赋予了各指标不同权重,却得出相同的指数变化趋势结果;运用秩和检验分析两国2004-2015年的年度PMI数据,发现PMI对整体经济趋势的影响相同。
[Abstract]:Manufacturing industry occupies a very important position in a country's economic development. Manufacturing purchasing manager index is an index reflecting the level of manufacturing industry. It is very important to study manufacturing purchasing manager index to promote national economic development. Data show that manufacturing output accounts for a large proportion of the U.S. economy, and that China is late in publishing the index, and research on it is not yet mature. Therefore, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry in China and the United States from the three aspects of survey scope, calculation method and influence on the overall economic trend. It is found that there are differences between China and the United States in the survey scope of selecting each index of PMI. The sample data collected in China are more extensive; In terms of calculation methods, though the two countries have given different weights to each index, they have obtained the same result of index change trend, and by using rank sum test to analyze the annual PMI data of the two countries from 2004 to 2015, it is found that the influence of PMI on the overall economic trend is the same.
【作者单位】：南昌大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY045) 江西省高校人文社会科学项目(JJ1238)“产业转移、专业市场布局与中国特色城镇化的互动机理和协调发展研究” 江西省高校人文社科项目“江西承接沿海产业的布局和选择研究”(JJ1347) 南昌大学应用经济学重点学科“研究生创新”项目“金融支持江西文化创意产业发展的支持体系研究”
【分类号】：F424;F471.2

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