基于多目标模糊理论的重大危险源区域消防规划研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 12:56

本文选题：区域消防规划 + 重大危险源　；参考：《天津大学》2007年博士论文

【摘要】： 近年来,消防问题已日益成为国内外的研究课题。随着一些新兴的包含重大危险源的工业物流园区的不断兴建,一些规模较大破坏性较强的火灾不断出现,使得这种重大危险源区域的消防工作面临的问题也越来越多,因此重大危险源区域消防规划逐渐成为人们关注的焦点。本文从区域消防整体规划的角度,并结合包含多个重大危险源的天津市散货物流区的实例出发,基于多目标模糊优化理论,对重大危险源区域消防规划,包括区域的风险评估、消防站布局规划以及消防给水系统的优化进行了系统的分析与研究,并建立了相应的消防规划模型。论文首先应用系统安全工程理论以及相关的数学方法,对重大危险源区域火灾风险评估进行了以下的研究:1、建立进行区域火灾风险评估的基本理论。分析了风险评估的内容及其本质。对区域火灾灾害系统及减灾管理进行了分析,给出了区域火灾的特征与风险评估的基本理论框架。2、给出了建立火灾风险评估指标体系的原则。构造了模糊层级分析法并以此来处理重大危险源区域火灾风险各指标的权重;对于区域火灾风险评估指标给出了相应的量化方法,并利用模糊理论对火灾风险进行了等级划分。3、利用模糊理论,开发了基于模糊均值的多指标综合评估合成技术,为研究重大危险源区域火灾风险提供了新的更加合适的方法。消防站布局是决定消防系统能力发挥的重要因素,他包括消防站的选址、责任区划分以及消防站设施的配备等几个方面工作。目前已有法律法规给出了相应的标准,但是此类标准具有一定的局限性,有待进一步优化。本文对消防站布局的优化主要采用了多目标模糊规划及其遗传算法,并适当的把多目标问题转换为单一的最大最小值目标问题,这样就较容易采用遗传算法进行求解。对比现有的消防站布局模型,本文的研究具有三个明显的特点:1、规划过程中考虑了模糊属性,2、充分考虑了不同风险级别对消防设施配备要求的不同,3、还考虑了消防服务出现拥挤的情况。最后的算例分析阐述了消防站布局优化模型应用的可行性和有效性。论文还基于相应的标准和数学模型对消防给水系统进行了规划研究。模型首先将重大危险源区域根据所发挥的功能作用划分为若干个功能区块,根据每个功能区块可能发生的火灾数及其可能出现的火灾情景建立所需要一次灭火用水量三角模糊函数,在根据系统优化理论,结合其外部天然可用水源的补充作用,并考虑调度的调控作用,建立了消防给水系统优化模型。文章最后用上面建立的规划模型,对天津散货物流区域的消防系统进行了规划研究,结果表明:基于多目标模糊的消防规划模型可靠的、系统的、有效的优化了整个区域的消防系统,降低了整个区域火灾风险系数。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the fire protection problem has become the domestic and foreign research topic day by day. With the continuous construction of some new industrial logistics parks containing major hazard sources, and the emergence of some large-scale and destructive fires, there are more and more problems faced by the fire fighting work in such major hazard areas. Therefore, regional fire control planning of major hazard sources has gradually become the focus of attention. Based on the theory of multi-objective fuzzy optimization, this paper, from the perspective of regional fire control overall planning and combining with the example of Tianjin bulk cargo logistics district which contains many major hazard sources, evaluates the regional fire control planning of major hazard sources, including the risk assessment of the region. The layout planning of fire station and the optimization of fire water supply system are systematically analyzed and studied, and the corresponding fire control planning model is established. In this paper, the system safety engineering theory and related mathematical methods are applied to the fire risk assessment of major hazard areas. The basic theory of regional fire risk assessment is established by using the following research: 1: 1. The content and essence of risk assessment are analyzed. The regional fire disaster system and disaster reduction management are analyzed, the characteristics of regional fire and the basic theoretical framework of risk assessment are given, and the principles of establishing fire risk assessment index system are given. This paper constructs the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to deal with the weight of the fire risk indexes in the area of major hazard sources, and gives the corresponding quantitative method for the regional fire risk assessment index. The fuzzy theory is used to classify the fire risk, and the fuzzy theory is used to develop the comprehensive evaluation and synthesis technology based on the fuzzy mean, which provides a new and more suitable method for the study of the fire risk in the area of major hazard. The layout of fire station is an important factor in determining the ability of fire fighting system. It includes the location of fire station, the division of area of responsibility and the installation of fire station. At present, there are some laws and regulations to give the corresponding standards, but such standards have some limitations and need to be further optimized. In this paper, the multi-objective fuzzy programming and its genetic algorithm are used to optimize the layout of fire stations, and the multi-objective problem is converted into a single maximum and minimum objective problem, which is easy to solve by genetic algorithm. Compare existing fire station layout models, The research in this paper has three obvious characteristics: 1, the fuzzy attribute is taken into account in the planning process, the different requirements of different risk levels for fire protection facilities are fully considered, and the congestion of fire service is also considered. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of application of fire station layout optimization model are analyzed. Based on the corresponding standard and mathematical model, the paper also carries on the plan research to the fire water supply system. The model first divides the major hazard area into several functional blocks according to its functional role. According to the number of fires that may occur in each functional block and the fire scenarios that may occur, the triangular fuzzy function of the amount of water needed to extinguish the fire is established, and according to the theory of system optimization, the supplementary role of its external natural available water source is combined. The optimal model of fire water supply system is established considering the regulation of dispatching. In the end of this paper, the fire control system of Tianjin bulk cargo logistics area is studied with the above planning model. The results show that the fire control planning model based on multi-objective fuzzy model is reliable and systematic. The fire control system of the whole area is optimized effectively, and the fire risk coefficient of the whole area is reduced.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：O221;D631.6

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