非常规群体性突发事件演化机理研究

发布时间：2018-06-28 04:04

本文选题：非常规突发事件 + 群体性事件　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：科学构建社会安全防范体系，着力解决由众多深层社会矛盾累积而成，并且日渐多发的各类群体性事件，尤其是其中聚集规模更大、强度和烈度更高、且易于产生连锁反应、具有明显复杂性特征和潜在衍生危害，严重危及社会秩序，同时运用常规管理方式难以应对的非常规群体性突发事件，既是当前加强和创新社会管理、构建和谐社会、践行科学发展观的重要抓手和关键任务，也是理论研究持续关注的重点领域和热点问题。深入探讨我国非常规群体性突发事件的内在演化机理，寻找对于应急决策具有实质性、决定性作用的关键环节，对于指导政府相关部门的应急决策实践、提升群体性事件治理能力和水平具有重要的现实意义，，对于创新和发展公共危机与应急管理理论体系具有一定的探索意义。转型时期我国社会结构性张力和制度化利益表达机制有效性缺失的客观现实，以及投射于社会心理并在日积月累中形成的社会怨恨构成了非常规群体性突发事件不断发生、演化的社会情境。从社会矛盾的淤积、群体内部能量的积聚、导火索事件的诱发，到最终演化为非常规群体性事件往往是一个高度动态性的复杂系统和社会过程。聚集人群规模的扩大、行为手段的升级、行为目标的转移以及影响范围的扩散成为其演化的重要表征体系。依据事件发生、发展的趋势和路径依赖可将其演化过程分为酝酿阶段、激化阶段、全面爆发阶段以及平息阶段。其中各类次生事件相互刺激、相互激励、相互耦合、相互关联，大体呈现出阶段反复式演化、直线式演化、并行式演化以及循环式演化等各种演化路径。借用扎根理论方法，在对所选取的近年来我国非常规群体性突发事件典型群案例进行逐一的数据信息收集、比较、聚类和编码分析基础上，可以得出导火索事件情景刺激、导火索事件社会认知、聚集群体结构以及聚集群体心理四个在演化过程中重要且重复出现的关键影响因素。其中导火索事件情景形成对聚集群众的强烈外部刺激，社会认知和集体解读成为其行为选择的中介变量，群体结构和群体心理则直接推动非常规群体性突发事件的演化升级。基于群体动力学理论，导火索事件双方的力量对比和行为表现、事件耦合度、时空环境、政府干预效果、政治风险和同类事件示范效应作为外源动力提供演化的外部条件和推动力，导火索事件社会认知、群体结构、群体情绪、集体效能感作为内生动力形成演化的基础和原动力。依据作用的性质和效果，可进一步细分为正向外源动力、负向外源动力、正向内生动力和负向内生动力，非常规群体性突发事件的演化正是在上述群体力场中各种动力相互影响、相互作用的结果。在前述研究基础上，建立非常规群体性突发事件演化的各个要素之间复杂关联或因果序列的理论假设，结合湖北石首事件的真实案例，设计调查问卷，实地调研收集数据，运用结构方程建模技术验证假设，辨明各个要素分别作为自变量、因变量、中间变量的交互作用关系，总结和归纳出非常规群体性突发事件演化的一般规律。
[Abstract]:Scientific construction of social security prevention system, and efforts to solve the accumulation of many deep-seated social contradictions, and the growing number of various groups of mass events, especially in which large scale, intensity and intensity is higher, and easy to produce chain reaction, with obvious complex characteristics and potential derivative harm, seriously endangering the social order, at the same time transportation. Unconventional group emergencies which are difficult to deal with by conventional management are not only the important grippers and key tasks of strengthening and innovating social management, building a harmonious society and practicing Scientific Outlook on Development, but also the key areas and hot issues of continuous attention in theoretical research. The internal performance of unconventional mass emergency in China is discussed in depth. It is of great practical significance to guide the emergency decision-making practice of the relevant government departments and improve the ability and level of group event management. It is of great significance to the innovation and development of the theoretical system of public crisis and emergency management.
The objective reality of social structural tension and the lack of effectiveness of institutional interest expression mechanism in the period of transition, as well as the social resentment that is projected on the social psychology and accumulated in the accumulated months, constitute the continuous occurrence of unconventional mass emergencies and the social situation of evolution. From the accumulation of social contradictions, the accumulation of energy within the group, and the guidance of the social situation. It is often a highly dynamic complex system and social process that the trigger of the fire cord events, and the eventual evolution into the unconventional group events. The expansion of the population size, the upgrading of the behavior means, the transfer of the behavior targets and the diffusion of the influence range become the important characterization system of its evolution. The path dependence can be divided into the brewing stage, the intensification stage, the full explosion stage and the rest stage, in which the secondary events stimulate each other, encourage each other, interact with each other, and relate to each other, and generally present a variety of evolutionary paths, such as repeated evolution, linear evolution, parallel evolution and cyclic evolution.
By using the method of grounded theory, on the basis of data information collection, comparison, clustering and coding analysis of the selected typical group cases of unconventional Group Emergencies in China in recent years, we can get the stimuli of the scene of the fuse event, the social cognition of the fuse event, the group structure and the group psychology of four. The important and repeated key influencing factors in the process of transformation are the intense external stimulus to the crowd, the social cognition and the collective interpretation become the intermediary variables of their behavior selection, and the group structure and group psychology directly promote the evolution and upgrading of unconventional group emergencies.
Based on the group dynamics theory, the force contrast and behavior performance of the two sides of the fuse, the event coupling, the time and space environment, the effect of government intervention, the political risk and the demonstration effect of the similar events provide the external conditions and impetus for the evolution of the evolution, and the social cognition, the group structure, the group mood, the collective efficacy of the fuse events. Based on the nature and effect of the action, the evolution of endogenous dynamics can be further subdivided into positive exogenous power, negative exogenous power, positive endogenous and negative endogenous dynamics. The evolution of unconventional mass emergencies is the result of interaction and interaction of various dynamic forces in the group force field above.
On the basis of the previous research, we set up the theoretical hypothesis of the complex association or causality sequence among the elements of the unconventional group emergencies, and combine the real cases of the Hubei Shishou event, design the questionnaire, collect the data in the field, verify the hypothesis by using the structural equation modeling technique, and identify the factors as independent variables, The general rule of the evolution of unconventional mass incidents is summarized and concluded by the interaction between the dependent variables and the intermediate variables.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：D631.43

【参考文献】