老年群体出行特征及相应交通政策研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 21:05

本文关键词： 老年群体出行出行次数出行方式出行时间预算　出处：《上海交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据《中国人口老龄化发展趋势预测研究报告》和联合国最新的人口数据可知,我国目前正处于快速进入老龄化的阶段。随着年龄增长,人们的自由出行能力减弱,即机动性减弱。然而,我国社会中老年人的富裕程度、健康程度和教育程度都比前几代老年人有明显提高。当代的老年人有更多空余时间和出行需求,他们比前几代老年人更加看重自己的生活质量,社会出行活动可能增加,但是目前我国对老年群体出行特征和相应的交通政策研究很少。本文以北京市、浙江省绍兴市、辽宁省辽阳市居民出行抽样调查数据为例,利用负二项模型,构建了老年群体出行次数分析模型,以老年人的性别、年龄、收入、文化程度等作为模型的影响变量,对变量的显著性和敏感性进行分析,研究结果表明家庭拥有私人小汽车数、文化程度、家庭自行车数以及离最近公交车站距离等对出行次数影响比较显著。同时,利用混合logit模型,建立了老年群体出行方式选择模型,分析了性别、不同年龄段、文化程度、职业等影响因素对老年群体出行方式选择的影响,研究结果表明男性老年群体比女性老年群体更倾向于选择私人小汽车和电动自行车出行,全职工作者比无职业者更倾向于选择公共交通、私人小汽车以及电动自行车方式出行。离最近的公交站步行所需时间越少,老年群体越倾向于选择公交车和步行这两种出行方式。此外,利用PLS结构方程对比分析了老年群体和非老年群体出行时间预算的差异。研究结果表明非老年人群的出行时间预算受经济状况影响比较大,经济条件越好,越希望优化出行成本,缩短出行时间,而老年群体的出行时间预算受年龄、性别以及月出行费用个人特征影响很强。
[Abstract]:According to the "Research report on the Prediction of the trend of Aging population in China" and the latest population data from the United Nations, China is now in a stage of rapid aging. With the increase of age, people's ability to travel freely is weakening. That is, mobility is weakened. However, the degree of affluence, health and education of the elderly in our society are significantly higher than those of previous generations. The contemporary elderly have more spare time and travel needs. They value their quality of life more than those of previous generations, and social travel activities may increase. However, at present, there is little research on the travel characteristics and corresponding transport policies of the elderly population in China. This paper focuses on Beijing, Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province. By using negative binomial model, this paper constructs an analysis model of travel frequency of elderly population in Liaoyang City, Liaoning Province, taking gender, age, income and education level as the influence variables of the model. The significance and sensitivity of the variables were analyzed. The results showed that the number of private cars, the education level, the number of bicycles and the distance from the nearest bus station had significant effects on the number of trips. Based on the mixed logit model, a travel mode selection model for the elderly group was established, and the influence factors such as gender, different age age, education level, occupation and other factors on the travel mode choice of the elderly group were analyzed. The results showed that older men were more likely to choose private cars and electric bikes than older women, and full-time workers were more likely to opt for public transport than unemployed people. Private cars and electric bikes. The less time it takes to walk from the nearest bus stop, the more likely older people are to choose both. The difference of travel time budget between elderly group and non-elderly group is analyzed by using PLS structural equation. The results show that the travel time budget of non-elderly population is greatly affected by the economic situation, and the better the economic condition is, the better the travel time budget is. The more we want to optimize the travel cost and shorten the travel time, the older group's travel time budget is strongly affected by age, gender and personal characteristics of monthly travel costs.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D669.6

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