政府换届、资本要素错配与经济波动——基于中国34个大中型城市的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-27 03:13

本文关键词： 政府换届资本要素错配经济波动　出处：《西安交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于中国工业企业微观数据和大中型城市党代会召开时间,分析了政府换届引起经济波动的传导机制。首先构建理论框架,换届冲击通过改变受资源约束型企业与资源充裕型企业之间的资本边际生产率的差异,引起要素在企业之间的流动,进而造成总量全要素生产率的变动,表现为地区的经济波动。此外,经验分析的结果也显示出,要素的错配程度与经济波动之间的确存在稳定的正相关关系;党代会召开后的第二年和第三年,经济波动幅度加剧,且在资本要素错配程度高或市场化程度低的地区更为明显。从而从要素动态配置的微观视角解释了中国经济波动的政治周期特性,为实现"稳增长"的发展目标提供参考。
[Abstract]:Based on the micro data of Chinese industrial enterprises and the time of the party Congress in large and medium-sized cities, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the economic fluctuation caused by the change of government. By changing the difference of marginal productivity of capital between resource-constrained enterprises and resource-rich enterprises, the impact of exchange causes the flow of factors among enterprises, and then the change of total total factor productivity. In addition, the results of empirical analysis also show that there is indeed a stable positive correlation between the mismatch of elements and economic fluctuations, and that in the second and third years after the Party Congress, the extent of economic fluctuations intensifies. Moreover, it is more obvious in areas where the mismatch of capital elements is high or the degree of marketization is low, which explains the political cycle characteristics of China's economic fluctuation from the microscopic perspective of dynamic allocation of elements, and provides a reference for realizing the development goal of "steady growth".
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(09XJY011)
【分类号】：D61;F124.8

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