2014年美国民主党中期选举失利的原因

发布时间：2018-03-26 06:01

本文选题：中期选举失利　切入点：奥巴马　出处：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：总统所属党派遭遇中期选举失利是美国政治中长期存在的规律之一。在1842年至2014年的44次中期选举中,总统所属的党派遭遇了 41次失利。在2010年和2014年,奥巴马也未能摆脱这一规律,连续丢掉了两次中期选举。然而,2014年奥巴马中期选举失利的独特之处在于,民主党丢掉了参众两院。这是共和党自2006年以来首次获得参议院的控制权,同时进一步巩固了共和党在众议院的优势。本文旨在分析奥巴马2014年中期选举失利的原因。关于总统所属党派遭遇中期选举失利这一现象,学界已经提出许多理论。在比较了这些主流理论后,本文选取了影响中期选举的三个主要因素:经济状况,总统支持率和投票人数。通过在全国和关键州两个层面的分析,本文发现。虽然奥巴马在任期间美国经济有所增长,但美国人民尤其是底层白人的生活水平并未得到显著提高。同时,由于奥巴马的医疗改革和移民法案等国内政策不得人心,奥巴马的民意支持率在2014年中期选举前也跌至谷底,严重影响了民主党的得票。其次,通过比较2014年中期选举与2012年总统大选中投票人数的不同,本文发现2014年中期选举期间,投票人数大幅减少。而这部分减少的人群主要是年轻人和少数族裔,也就是民主党的票仓。同时,反对民主党的人群(如大部分白人和老年人)的投票增多。这一发现与负面投票理论吻合。另外,通过研究在任民主党参议员失利的五个关键州,本文发现,各州失败的原因也符合在全国层面分析得出的结论。奥巴马的低支持率和对民主党不利的投票人数导致了民主党参议院在这些州的失败。同时,某些民主党参议员的竞选策略也对民主党在南方各州的竞选十分不利。此外,共和党在竞选期间一直将民主党参议员与奥巴马联系在一起,这一策略也起到了一定的作用。
[Abstract]:The presidential party's midterm defeat is one of the longstanding laws of American politics. In 44 midterm elections between 1842 and 2014, the president's party suffered 41 defeats. In 2010 and 2014, Obama also failed to get rid of this rule, losing two midterm elections in a row. However, the unique feature of Obama's midterm election defeat in 2014 is that, Democrats have lost both houses of Congress. It's the first time that Republicans have taken control of the Senate since 2006. This article aims to analyze the reasons for Obama's defeat in the 2014 midterm election. The academic community has put forward many theories. After comparing these mainstream theories, this paper selects three main factors that influence the mid-term election: economic condition, presidential approval rate and voting number. This article finds that, while the U.S. economy has grown during Obama's tenure, the standard of living of the American people, especially the lower-class whites, has not improved significantly, and because of Obama's domestic policies such as health care reform and immigration legislation, Obama's approval ratings also bottomed out before the 2014 midterm elections, which seriously affected Democrats' votes. Second, by comparing the number of votes cast in the 2014 midterm election and the 2012 presidential election, we found that during the 2014 midterm election, The number of voters has fallen dramatically. And that part of the decline has been mainly young people and minorities, the Democratic Party's ballot box. And at the same time, Opposition to the Democratic Party, such as the majority of whites and the elderly, has increased. This finding coincides with the theory of negative voting. In addition, by studying five key states in which incumbent Democratic senators have lost, this paper finds, The reasons for states' failure are also consistent with national analysis. Obama's low approval ratings and unfavorable votes for Democrats have led to Democratic Senate failures in these states. Some Democratic Senate campaigns are also detrimental to the Democratic campaign in the southern states, and the Republican campaign has played a role in linking Democratic senators to Obama during the campaign.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D771.2

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