危机与应对:普京第三任期俄罗斯经济发展

发布时间：2018-04-09 01:25

本文选题：俄罗斯　切入点：普京第三任期　出处：《东北亚论坛》2017年06期

【摘要】：普京第三任期以来,俄罗斯经济逐渐从低速增长到陷入危机,此轮俄罗斯经济危机是由外部因素与内生因素共同作用的结果。欧美制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素固然是将俄罗斯推向危机的重要推手,但真正导致俄罗斯经济陷入危机的深层次原因还是俄罗斯经济内生的结构性问题。本文在分析俄罗斯经济形势的同时,对2008年金融危机与普京第三任期内的经济危机进行了比较。普京第三任期俄罗斯经济发展面临着增长模式、经济结构、创新积极性、投资、人力资本发展等一系列挑战,本文从能源出口收入增加与经济增长之间的内在联动机制入手,指出俄罗斯传统经济增长模式失效的原因。为尽快消除西方制裁和经济危机的负面影响,俄罗斯政府制定并实施了反制裁和反危机政策。从目前的经济形势看,2017年俄罗斯经济止跌回升实现低速增长并非难事,要实现持续、快速、稳定的经济增长还需要大力推进结构改革,发展创新型经济,不断改善营商环境,创造有利于市场经济发展的制度环境,这对俄罗斯而言都是长期而艰巨的任务。
[Abstract]:Since Putin's third term, the Russian economy has grown from a low speed to a crisis. The current round of Russia's economic crisis is the result of the combination of external and endogenous factors.While external factors such as sanctions from Europe and the United States and falling international oil prices are important drivers of pushing Russia to the crisis, the deep-seated causes of the crisis in Russia's economy are the structural problems inherent in the Russian economy.This paper analyzes the economic situation of Russia, and compares the financial crisis of 2008 with the economic crisis of Putin's third term.In Putin's third term of office, Russia's economic development is facing a series of challenges, such as growth model, economic structure, innovation initiative, investment, human capital development, etc. This paper starts with the internal linkage mechanism between the increase of energy export income and economic growth.Points out the reasons for the failure of the traditional Russian economic growth model.In order to eliminate the negative effects of western sanctions and economic crisis as soon as possible, the Russian government formulated and implemented anti-sanctions and anti-crisis policies.Judging from the current economic situation, it is not difficult for Russia's economy to stop falling and pick up and achieve low growth in 2017. In order to achieve sustained, rapid and stable economic growth, it is also necessary to vigorously promote structural reform, develop an innovative economy, and continuously improve the business environment.Creating an institutional environment conducive to the development of a market economy is a long-term and arduous task for Russia.
【作者单位】：中俄战略协作高端合作智库办公室;中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所;
【基金】：中俄战略协作高端合作智库资金资助项目
【分类号】：D851.2;F151.2

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