金砖国家机制有效性研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 16:32

本文选题：金砖国家机制 + 金砖国家　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：冷战结束后,全球化的深入发展催生了一批经济高速发展的新兴经济体。2001年,世界著名投资银行、投资和证券管理公司美国高盛集团的首席经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)首次提出"金砖国家"的概念,意指巴西(Brazil)、俄罗斯(Russia)、印度(India)和中国(China)四个表现突出的新兴经济体。2009年,金砖国家宣布正式成立金砖国家机制,希望从国际金融秩序改革入手,通过进一步加强合作,使发展中国家能够更加有效地参与全球治理,从而使得国际秩序更加公平、公正。2011年,南非加入金砖国家机制,金砖四国(BRIC)正式变为金砖五国(BRICS)。鉴于成员国在冷战结束后对全球经济发展做出的突出贡献,金砖国家机制在成立之初受到了各方的关注;2010年,金砖国家机制成功推动了国际货币基金组织的改革,提高了新兴经济体在其框架内的地位。然而,2012年以来,受全球经济下行发展趋势的影响,加之内部经济发展模式的缺陷,金砖国家机制与现有国际秩序的互动开始减弱;成立近八年来,金砖国家机制并没有充分发挥成立之初预测的"有力推动国际秩序公平发展"的作用。不同于传统的国际机制,金砖国家机制有着鲜明的特点:首先,成员国数量有限,并且没有能够完全处于优势地位的发达国家作主导;其次,成员国在地缘上具有分散性;第三,其在机制上选择了非正式的机制模式。这些特点使得金砖国家机制的发展路径没有可以参考的范例。鉴于此,需要结合现有理论,对金砖国家机制进行深入系统的研究,进而对其发展前景及路径进行判断。金砖国家机制的有效性是系统研究金砖国家机制必不可少的一部分:这一方面是对现有理论的补充,另一方面也为金砖国家机制的未来发展提供必要的理论支持。本文从金砖国家机制特点入手,结合国际机制有效性有关理论,从成员国个体及机制整体两个维度,通过成员国获益情况以及机制框架内具体议题的行动指南执行情况,对金砖国家机制的成员国个体有效性、机制整体的内部有效性以及机制整体的外部有效性作出评估。从评估结果来看,金砖国家机制的个体有效性及机制整体的内部有效性尚可,但不同成员国、不同议题差别较大;机制整体的外部有效性则受到较大的限制。通过具体议题的分析可以得出,影响金砖国家机制有效性的因素主要包括机制内部的成员国个体差异性、机制自身的非正式性以及机制外部的国际环境。鉴于此,金砖国家机制在未来的发展过程中需要限制成员国数量、扩大议题范围、在个别领域尝试机制化发展,并且保持机制的灵活性。对有效性的评估还为判断金砖国家机制未来的发展趋势提供了参考。虽然金砖国家在2012年以后受全球经济下行发展的冲击,经济在不同程度上出现问题,但随着全球经济的复苏及国内改革的深入,其经济衰退的趋势开始得到抑制,并逐渐回暖;此外,成员国在能源、农业、环境等领域仍然有较为一致的利益诉求,并且通过高级官员会议、论坛等形式进行了深入的交流与探讨。总体来看,如能充分挖掘现有的资源,金砖国家机制在今后仍然有较大的发展空间。面对机遇与挑战,作为金砖国家机制中综合实力最强的成员国,中国需要为机制的发展完善发挥积极的作用,具体包括保持经济平稳发展、积极推动扩大议题范围并在机制框架内提供必要援助、推动机制在气候、能源等领域与现有国际机制互动等。
[Abstract]:After the end of the cold war, the deep development of globalization has brought about a number of emerging economies with rapid economic development in.2001. Jim ONeil (Jim O'Neill), the chief economist of the world famous investment bank, investment and securities management company of Goldman Sachs, first proposed the concept of "BRICs home", which means Brazil (Brazil), Russia (Russia), and India. In India and the four emerging economies of China (China), four emerging economies, the BRICs countries announced the formal establishment of the BRICs mechanism, hoping to start with the reform of the international financial order and further strengthen cooperation to enable developing countries to participate more effectively in global governance, thus making the international order more fair and just for.2011 years, South Africa joined the BRICs mechanism and the BRIC countries (BRIC) formally became the BRIC countries (BRICS). In view of the outstanding contribution made by member countries to the global economic development after the end of the cold war, the BRICs mechanism was concerned at the beginning of the establishment of the BRICs national mechanism. In 2010, the success of the BRICs system has promoted the reform of the IMF. However, since 2012, since 2012, influenced by the downward trend of the global economy and the defects of the internal economic development model, the interaction between the BRICs mechanism and the existing international order has begun to weaken. In the last eight years, the BRICs mechanism has not given full play to the "strong impetus" of the initial forecast. Different from the traditional international mechanism, the BRICs mechanism has distinct characteristics: first, the number of member countries is limited, and the developed countries that are in the dominant position are not dominant; secondly, the member countries have the dispersion in the Geopolitics; third, it chooses the informal mechanism model in the mechanism. These features make no reference to the development path of the BRICs national mechanism. In view of this, it is necessary to make a thorough and systematic study of the BRICs mechanism in combination with the existing theories, and then judge the prospect and path of the BRICs national mechanism. The effectiveness of the BRICs mechanism is an essential part of the study of the BRICs national mechanism. This is a supplement to the existing theory, on the other hand, it also provides the necessary theoretical support for the future development of the BRICs mechanism. This paper, starting with the characteristics of the BRICs mechanism, combines the theory of the effectiveness of the international mechanism, from the two dimensions of the individual and mechanism of the Member States, through the benefit of the Member States and the framework of the mechanism. The implementation of the action guide on specific issues, assessing the individual effectiveness of the BRICs Member States, the internal effectiveness of the mechanism as well as the overall external effectiveness of the mechanism. From the evaluation results, the effectiveness of the BRICs mechanism and the internal effectiveness of the mechanism are still available, but the different member countries and different issues are on the basis of the evaluation results. The external effectiveness of the mechanism is greatly limited. Through the analysis of specific issues, it can be concluded that the factors that affect the effectiveness of the BRICs mechanism include the individual differences within the mechanism, the informal mechanism of the mechanism and the external environment of the mechanism. The development process needs to limit the number of Member States, expand the scope of the issue, try to develop the mechanism in a few fields, and maintain the flexibility of the mechanism. The evaluation of the effectiveness also provides a reference for judging the future trend of the BRIC mechanism. Although the BRICs countries were affected by the global economic downside after 2012, However, with the recovery of the global economy and the deepening of domestic reform, the trend of its economic recession has begun to be suppressed and gradually warmer. In addition, the member countries still have more consistent interest demands in the fields of energy, agriculture, environment and other fields, and have been carried out in depth through the forms of senior officials' meetings, forums and so on. As a whole, if the existing resources can be fully excavated, the BRICs national mechanism still has greater space for development in the future. Facing the opportunities and challenges, as a member country with the strongest comprehensive strength in the BRIC national mechanism, China needs to play an extremely important role in improving the development of the mechanism, including maintaining a stable economic development. We will vigorously expand the scope of the agenda and provide the necessary assistance within the framework of the mechanism to promote mechanisms to interact with existing international mechanisms in the fields of climate, energy and so on.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D814.1

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