印度洋地区安全结构演变的新态势及原因探析

发布时间：2018-05-12 19:02

本文选题：印度洋 + 安全结构　；参考：《国际论坛》2017年01期

【摘要】：在印度洋问题上,中国目前面临"战略两难",一方面,利益的不断增长客观上要求中国在印度洋地区"有所作为";另一方面,中国影响力的提升会面临较大体系结构压力,尤其是印、美的反弹。近年出于"共同利益"需要,印美在战略上相互讨好之势明显,实则"各取所需"。在此背景下,印度洋地区安全结构出现以下几个新态势:第一,美印逐步走向战略联合;第二,美国实行责任推卸和离岸平衡策略,印度洋地区安全结构将由中印美"三极"转向以美国支持下的印度与中国的"两级";第三,新安全结构将是一种"竞合型"结构,"霍尔木兹困境"或将成为中国未来"新困局"。在此基础上,本文对结构演变的原因进行了探讨,最后简要提出几点中国的应对之策。
[Abstract]:On the Indian Ocean issue, China is now facing a "strategic dilemma." on the one hand, the growing interests of China objectively require China to "do something" in the Indian Ocean region; on the other hand, the promotion of China's influence will face greater structural pressure on the system. In particular, India, the United States rebound. In recent years, due to the need of "common interests", India and the United States have an obvious tendency to please each other strategically, but in fact, they "get what they need". Against this background, the security structure in the Indian Ocean has taken on the following new trends: first, the United States and India are gradually moving towards strategic unity; and second, the United States has implemented a strategy of shirking its responsibilities and balancing off shore. The Indian Ocean security structure will be changed from the "three poles" between China, India and the United States to the "two levels" between India and China supported by the United States; third, the new security structure will be a "competing structure", and the "Hormuz dilemma" may become a "new dilemma" for China in the future. On this basis, this paper discusses the causes of structural evolution, and finally puts forward some countermeasures for China.
【作者单位】：复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院;国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心复旦大学分中心;
【基金】：2016年国家社科基金项目“构建印度洋出海大通道战略支点视角下中缅中巴能源通道研究”(项目批准号:15BGJ047)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D815.5

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